Abbreviated Pundit Round-up: More on Citizens United, BP oil spill and pertussis

^{Visual source: Newseum}

Larry Sabato:

While it is fashionable for voters to call themselves 'independent' - both in how they respond to surveys or in their voter registration - polling data tell us that most people who claim to be independent really are not. A Gallup survey earlier this year noted that 40% of those polled identified as independents, but after 'leaners' toward one party or the other were weeded out, the percentage of real independents was only about 10%. That squares with a more recent report from Ipsos' Clifford Young, who pegged independents as 11% of the likely voters in the upcoming election. Political science research suggests that the real proportion of independents in the November electorate will be even smaller, perhaps 5% to7%.

Frank Rich:

Barack Obama has made his mistakes as a politician and as a president, but here is one thing he indisputably did right: pummel Mitt Romney with a volley of attack ads once Romney sewed up the Republican nomination. Obama was playing by the rules, honoring historical precedent in both parties, and pursuing the one must-do task before him in an election year (winning). And yet from the blowback that erupted once his Bain ad hit the fan'from his own camp, from the pious arbiters of Beltway manners, and, of course, from his adversaries'you'd think Romney was an innocent civilian under assault by a drone. What was everyone so shocked about?

Nate Silver:

Polls Show Forward Movement for Obama in Florida

As we mentioned last week, President Obama's polling has been holding up reasonably well in Florida. The latest example was a SurveyUSA poll, released late Friday, that showed him five points ahead there among likely voters.

WaPo:

Third-party groups ready multiple ads attacking health-care law

Conservative groups are gearing up to spend millions of dollars over the next three months on ads attacking President Obama's health-care law and Democrats who support it, but in many cases voters will have no way of knowing who paid for the barrage.

MSNBC:

Between January and April 2011, 186 dead bottlenose dolphins washed ashore between Louisiana and western Florida. Most alarmingly, nearly half of these casualties were calves, which is more than double the usual proportion of young to old dolphins found dead. Scientists now blame both natural factors and human catastrophe for the unusual die-off.

"Unfortunately, it was a 'perfect storm' that led to the dolphin deaths," study researcher Graham Worthy, a biologist at the University of Central Florida, said in a statement. "The oil spill and cold water of 2010 had already put significant stress on their food resources. ' It appears the high volumes of cold freshwater coming from snowmelt water that pushed through Mobile Bay and Mississippi Sound in 2011 was the final blow."

Paul Krugman:

The first is that both in effect shrug their shoulders over the fact that for several days running the central theme of the Romney campaign has rested on a complete lie. I understand; going on about the dishonesty can get boring. But we should step back often to look at this remarkable spectacle. I really don't think there's been anything like this in American political history: a presidential campaign, with a pretty good chance of winning, that is based entirely on cynical lies about what the sitting president has said. No, Obama hasn't apologized for America; no, he hasn't denigrated achievement. Yet take away those claims, and there's nothing left in Romney's rhetoric.

The other thing that I think needs clarification is that it's wrong to think of conservatives as having a single argument for their preferred policies. What they offer instead is more like an onion, with layers inside layers; every time you strip away one excuse there's another one inside.

Romney lies all the time, as in every day. But our dear media doesn't have the cojones to call him on it every day. He knows it, which is why he lies.

Medical News Today:

The number of pertussis (whooping cough) cases registered in the state of Washington, USA, has risen considerably this year; in April 2012, the Washington State Secretary of Health declared an emergency. By 16th June there had been 2,520 reported cases of whooping cough across the state, an increase of 1,300% compared to the same period in 2011 - 37.5 cases per 100,000 people. A few days ago, Washington's epidemic passed 3,000 reported cases.

Health authorities report that the state now has the highest number of reported pertussis cases since 1942.

Health authorities say infants aged less than 12 months and children aged 10 years have been especially affected. Incidence among 13 and 14 year olds has also risen significantly, despite healthy vaccination rates in this age group for tetanus toxoid, reduced diphtheria toxoid, and acellular pertussis (Tdap). Experts say this suggests that immunity is declining earlier than expected.

I'm as hard on the anti-vax-ers as anyone, but the current outbreak is not due to non-vaccination, at least in its entirety. NBC:

The CDC is trying to figure out what's going on, but Schuchat said a couple of factors are clearly at work. The formulation for the whooping cough vaccine was changed in 1997, and kids hitting age 13 and 14 now are the first to have been fully vaccinated with five doses of the new vaccine. The new formulation causes less of a reaction, but it may also wear off sooner, Schuchat said.

The older vaccine was made using a whole pertussis bacterium. It was very effective, but it did cause swelling in some kids who got it, and sometimes caused a fever -- something that scared parents. It also was widely blamed for causing rare but serious neurological reactions, although Schuchat said studies have not confirmed this.