Wisconsin recall tightens slightly, PPP poll finds, but enthusiasm gap favors Republicans

Wisconsin state capitol Public Policy Polling (PDF). 6/2-3. Likely voters. ±2.8% (5/11-13 results):

Tom Barrett (D): 47 (45)
Scott Walker (R-Inc): 50 (50)
Undecided: 3 (3)

The trendline on this poll isn't perfect, since PPP's last poll included independent candidate Hari Trivedi; Trivedi was only pulling in 1 percent support at the time, though, so the difference is small.

This poll suggests that Barrett is gaining slightly. With so few undecided voters and such a close margin, the poll reinforces something we already knew: More than most, this race will come down to turnout. The bad news is that although the recall was initiated by Democrats, Tom Jensen reports that the enthusiasm gap currently works for Republicans:

Barrett is actually winning independent voters by a 48-46 margin. The reason he continues to trail overall is that Republicans are more excited about voting in Tuesday's election than Democrats are.

Our projected electorate voted for Barack Obama by only 7 points, even though he took the state by 14 in 2008. If the folks who turn out on Tuesday actually matched the 2008 electorate, Barrett would be ahead of Walker by a 50-49 margin.

Every cliche in the book about tight races applies to the final push to recall Scott Walker. Every vote counts, we can all make a difference, etc etc etc. The good news is that no matter where you live, you can help turn out voters to defeat Scott Walker is by using the Friends and Neighbors tool created by our partners at the AFL-CIO and Workers' Voice. Friends and Neighbors puts you in touch with Wisconsin voters you have already connected with online.

Please, click here to help turn out voters to defeat Scott Walker by signing up for Friends and Neighbors. You can sign up either by using your Facebook log-in or by filling out a short form.