Monday, June 25, 2012

Obama inches up in Electoral College picture

The last time we reviewed the battleground state polling composite, on June 14, Mitt Romney had dug deeply into President Barack Obama's Electoral College, with the president leading by just 270-259.

This week, Obama has gained some breathing room.

Michigan is weird'PPP thinks it's an Obama blowout (53-39), while Rasmussen doesn't see it very close (50-42). But a bunch of smaller local outfits see it as a 1-2 point race, hence the tighter numbers.

Obama has inched back in Florida thanks to Quinnipiac, which has been all over the place in the state'it had Romney up 47-41 in mid-May, and then had Obama up 46-42 in mid-June. There's no way the race has shifted 10 points in the state in a single month.

Colorado got pulled out of its previous tie thanks to a PPP poll showing Obama up 49-42. New Hampshire got "closer" because Romney has picked up some support, but Obama continues to hover above the 50 percent mark in all non-Rasmussen polling. And even Ras has it 48-43 Obama.

I began this feature on April 11. Here's how much the numbers have changed since that inaugural edition two and a half months ago:

Ouch.

The electoral math, based on the numbers this week, is Obama 285, Romney 253. Flip Iowa and Michigan red, both of which sport less than 1-point Obama leads, and Romney enjoys a 275-263 advantage.


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