Orange to Blue roundup, 10/02/2012

Here's what's new in our Orange to Blue races.
 

Speaker Pelosi Project:

CA-07: Dr. Ami Bera describes his strategy to avoid another 2010, when a flood of outside spending erased his down-the-stretch gain in the polls. This year, he says, they prepared from the very beginning of the campaign for the onslaught of Super PAC money.

"The biggest way we're combating outside money is with our grassroots field program," said Bera's communications director Allison Teixeira. "We know that communicating with people face-to-face has more of an impact than communicating with them any other way. We have the largest field program of any congressional campaign in the country, and our volunteers are knocking on voters' doors every single day to tell them the truth about Dr. Bera and why they're supporting him."

Bera's strong 2010 run is also helping him with outside groups from the left, who've put about $2 million into the district against incumbent Rep. Dan Lungren.

FL-18: If you haven't seen Patrick Murphy's latest ad hitting Allen West for his problematic military record, take a look.

FL-26: Republicans apparently think Rep. David Rivera is toast, either via loss on Nov. 6, or federal indictment. They're already planning for how is going to take on Joe Garcia in 2014.

IL-13: Another nail biter here. Democrat David Gill is running neck-and-neck with Republican Rodney Davis in an internal poll. Gill has a one-point lead, 40-39, with a third-party candidate picking up eight percent. And, ugh:

A new report by the Federal Election Commission on so-called "independent" or "superPAC" spending in the race shows that $1.795 million has been devoted to the race, most of it against Gill. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce entered the race over the weekend, saying it would put $500,000 in advertising to oppose Gill. A 30-second ad posted online by the Chamber of Commerce hits Gill for his support of President Barack Obama's Affordable Care Act and for a plan to raise taxes "on job creators."

NH-01: The DCCC is in with a good new ad for Carol Shea Porter. This is a nice one, with six men explaining why they have a problem with Rep. Frank Guinta's support for anti-women efforts by his party. Upgrade the Senate:

CT-Sen: What's the opposite of tea party astroturf? This:
 

A handful of seniors were not happy with Republican U.S. Senate candidate Linda McMahon's remarks on Social Security, so they gathered their friends and brought some signs and a guitar to a protest outside her North Haven headquarters Monday. [...]
'Social Security for years to come, not just for me,' Mary Elia chanted as she shook her sign.

Elia, who helped organize the rally Monday, said McMahon is hiding some of her positions and it's not getting much attention.

Well, there are some senior citizen votes for Chris Murphy.

OH-Sen: Another poll, another lead for Sen. Sherrod Brown. This one is from PPP.

PPP's newest poll of the Ohio Senate race finds no change in the state of the contest over the last three weeks. Sherrod Brown continues to lead Josh Mandel by 8 points. The spread is 49-41 this time after being 48-40 on the previous survey.

(And for an unrelated bonus in Ohio, that's just too good not to add here: "One Republican who continues to be incredibly unpopular in Ohio is House Speaker John Boehner. He has a 32/46 approval rating statewide and perhaps in a related finding Democrats have a 45-41 lead on the generic Congressional ballot, including an 8 point advantage with independents.")

WI-Sen: Tommy Thompson had another bad day. This effective ad went on the air, hitting him on his "who better than me" to end Medicare and Medicaid honesty. And Tammy Baldwin's campaign hit him with this one blasting his lucrative lobbying career. Then one of his dubious claims in the last debate, that he built a hospital in Afghanistan. Turns out, the hospital was a Defense Department project, which "remodeled and reopened part of an existing facility," and was a bit of a failure, providing sub-par care. But maybe there's hope for Thompson's flailing campaign. Paul Ryan's going to be coming home to host a fundraiser for him. Because nothing says winning like having the floundering top-of-the-ticket appearing for you.

Daily Kos for Marriage Equality:

Maine: This isn't a direct win for Mainers United for Marriage in November, but it's a satisfying resolution of an old issue.

The U.S. Supreme Court declined Monday to hear an appeal from a national group opposed to same-sex marriage that tried to thwart Maine's campaign disclosure law requiring it to release its donor list.

Even the National Organization for Marriage will have to play by the rules. And here is definite good news for November:

The latest poll out of Maine shows support for same-sex marriage is leading 57 percent to 36 percent!

Results of the statewide poll, commissioned by the Portland Press Herald/Maine Sunday Telegram, were released on Sunday.