Orange to Blue roundup, 10/01/2012

It was a big weekend for our Orange to Blue races. Here's what's new.
 

Speaker Pelosi Project:

FL-18: This one is a little weird, but, well, it's Allen West, so ... just read it, if you dare. In less weird FL-18 news, new polling from Kimball Political Consulting, a Republican firm, has Patrick Murphy up, with a 49-45 edge. Also, too, the House Majority PAC, courtesy of Garin-Hart-Yang, has Murphy up 52-43.

And here's the cherry on top: Murphy raised $1.05 million in the third quarter.

FL-26: Rep. David Rivera, the GOP's clumsiest crook, is floundering, "according to a poll conducted this week by McLaughlin & Associates, a well-regarded GOP firm." Joe Garcia has a 44-33 lead.

OH-16: The Republicans thought they'd get rid of Democratic Rep. Betty Sue Sutton when they redistricted her into a race against their incumbent freshman Jim Renacci. She's made it a real race, and is making the National Republican Congressional Committee spend some money there. They're going into the district with ads for the first time this week.

WI-07: Pat Kreitlow is still sneaking up on reality "star" Rep. Sean Duffy. Internal polling released by Kreitlow shows him down just three points, 43-41. That basically confirms PPP's findings from last week, though this one has much higher undecideds, at 15 percent. Kreitlow's campaign gave the DK Elections crew the rest of the findings:

"Obama's up 52-41 over Romney, not too far off his eight-point margin in 2008. If those numbers hold up, then Duffy will be facing some serious headwinds in his attempt to claw his way to 50%+1."

Upgrade the Senate:

CT-Sen: Republican Linda McMahon got some very bad press over the weekend following her idea to "sunset Social Security." Sez the Hartford Guardian:
 

McMahon flirts with a wide range of approaches toward solvency for Medicare and Social Security, a stance she says would allow her to participate in bipartisan negotiations if elected to succeed Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman.[...] But she ultimately shrinks from specific plans, especially when they bring controversy. In interviews Thursday and Friday, McMahon and her communication director, Todd Abrajano, were more emphatic about what McMahon doesn't mean than what she does.

Ouch. And the Journal Inquirer [sub req.]:

In an age of women's empowerment, in an age when men are generally called out for disrespecting women, McMahon has built her fortune, and gained the business experience she says qualifies her for high office, exploiting and degrading women. World Wrestling Entertainment, which now calls itself 'PG,' family friendly, and wholesome, became successful depicting acts of rage, pseudo-rape, and subjugation against women. That's a fact.'

With the media out there reminding Connecticut voters why they rejected McMahon in 2010, Chris Murphy will likely see undecideds lining up behind him.

HI-Sen: Here's one that can probably be put to bed. Honolulu's Civil Beat poll has Mazie Hirono up 16 points over Republican Linda Lingle, 55-39.

OH-Sen: Sen. Sherrod Brown's opponent, Josh Mandel, is starting to show the strain of losing. Meeting a tracker from American Bridge in an elevator, Mandel tried to take his camera away:

Mandel approached the tracker, called him loudly by name, and at one point grabbed the monopod attached to the tracker's camera.

The tracker said 'please don't,' and Mandel relented, asking the tracker 'how you been' and said 'good to see you.' He also asked the tracker if he knew a Dispatch reporter who was in the elevator.

Yeah, not a good move in front of a local reporter.

WI-Sen: Tommy Thompson doesn't act much like a candidate who wants to win. He complains to the National Review that he was "exhausted" after the primary, and that he was at the point where "you hope that the other guy gets tired and stops hitting you.' As for his race against Tammy Baldwin:

'We should end the quarter with north of a million dollars, plus having paid for our TV through the 1st of October,' Thompson says. 'It's not nearly enough, but I'm out there raising money every day.'
For weeks, Thompson says, his money woes were real. 'In order to get to the finish line on the primary, I had to borrow $600,000,' he says. 'The campaign doesn't want me to say that, but I did.' By late August, 'We were hurt, but we won.'

There's also trouble in campaign paradise, apparently:  'Let's put all of the cards on the table,' Thompson says as he glances at his political aides. 'People in this campaign are always trying to, you know, put me in a silo. Well, I will never be put in a silo.'

Thompson's money woes could worsen if the polling continues as the last few weeks' have, with Baldwin shown no signs of losing momentum. National groups could decide that throwing money in for Thompson isn't their best bet, and move on to other races. On the other hand, they've already spent a ton against Baldwin, with little to show.

Daily Kos for Marriage Equality:

Maryland: A poll by OpinionWorks for the Baltimore Sun brings good news for marriage equality.

Five weeks before the election, a measure to legalize same-sex marriage in Maryland has seen a surge of support and is now favored by likely voters, 49 percent to 39 percent, a new Baltimore Sun poll has found. [...] In March, the OpinionWorks poll found 43 percent of likely voters opposed and only 40 percent in favor.

They attribute much of the turnaround since March to much less opposition to gay marriage among African Americans, only a third of whom supported the measure, whereas in this week's poll, "more than half of likely black voters favor legalizing same-sex marriage, compared with a quarter who are opposed."