Saturday, October 27, 2012

Daily Kos Elections Polling Wrap: Obama with strong day in the swing states to close out the week

Friday-lite is somewhat of a thing of the past, as we get 43 polls to close out the week, and clear conclusions remain elusive, though the clear message from Friday's data is that you'd much rather be the president than his opponent.

The national polls continue their bounciness, although the president got his fair share of the bounces today. But the swing states looked especially good for the president today, including some GOP pollsters who, while still conceding a lead to the Republican, had the race far too close for comfort in states that Republicans have long presumed would be a lock in their path to 270.

So, where does that ultimately put us? Based on the math, it looks like we are basically where we have been for two weeks now. The president has an edge, but it is a narrow one, and the coalition of states that put him over the top are led by margins that are not insurmountable. However, two things are clear, both of which are bad news for Mitt Romney's supporters, he still has a built-in electoral college disadvantage, and any Denver momentum he might have established has clearly been stalled.

More on that after the jump. For now, though, on to the numbers:

PRESIDENTIAL POLLING:

NATIONAL (ABC/WaPo Tracking): Romney 49, Obama 48

NATIONAL (Gallup Tracking): Romney 51, Obama 46 (LV); Obama 48, Romney 48 (RV)

NATIONAL (IBD/TIPP Tracking): Obama 47, Romney 45

NATIONAL (Ipsos/Reuters Tracking): Obama 47, Romney 46 (LV); Obama 46, Romney 42 (RV)

NATIONAL (PPP Tracking): Obama 48, Romney 48

NATIONAL (Rasmussen Tracking): Romney 50, Obama 47


COLORADO (Purple Strategies): Obama 47, Romney 46

FLORIDA (Rasmussen): Romney 50, Obama 48

FLORIDA (Voter Survey Service for Sunshine State News--R): Romney 51, Obama 46

INDIANA (McLaughlin and Associates for the Mourdock campaign): Romney 55, Obama 41

IOWA (Gravis--R): Obama 50, Romney 46

NEVADA (Gravis--R): Obama 50, Romney 49

NEW HAMPSHIRE (New England College): Obama 49, Romney 46

NEW MEXICO (PPP): Obama 52, Romney 43

NEW YORK (Siena): Obama 59, Romney 35

NORTH CAROLINA (Gravis--R): Romney 53, Obama 45

NORTH CAROLINA (Grove Insight for Project New America/USAction--D): Obama 47, Romney 44

NORTH CAROLINA (National Research for Civitas--R): Romney 48, Obama 47

OHIO (American Research Group): Obama 49, Romney 47

OHIO (CNN/ORC): Obama 50, Romney 46 (LV); Obama 51, Romney 44 (RV)

OHIO (Purple Strategies): Obama 46, Romney 44

OKLAHOMA (Sooner Poll): Romney 58, Obama 33

VIRGINIA (Purple Strategies): Obama 47, Romney 47

WISCONSIN (Grove Insight for USAction/Project New America--D): Obama 48, Romney 43

WISCONSIN (Rasmussen): Obama 49, Romney 49

DOWNBALLOT POLLING:
IN-SEN (Anzalone-Liszt for the DSCC): Joe Donnelly (D) 47, Richard Mourdock (R) 40

IN-SEN (McLaughlin and Associates for the Mourdock campaign): Joe Donnelly (D) 44, Richard Mourdock (R) 44, Andy Horning (L) 6

MA-SEN (Rasmussen): Elizabeth Warren (D) 52, Sen. Scott Brown (R) 47

NM-SEN (PPP): Martin Heinrich (D) 52, Heather Wilson (R) 44

NY-SEN (Siena): Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D) 67, Wendy Long (R) 24

ND-SEN (Mellman Group for the Heitkamp campaign): Heidi Heitkamp (D) 48, Rick Berg (R) 44

PA-SEN (Harstad Research for the DSCC): Sen. Bob Casey (D) 52, Tom Smith (R) 40

PA-SEN (Rasmussen): Sen. Bob Casey (D) 46, Tom Smith (R) 45

VA-SEN (Rasmussen): Tim Kaine (D) 49, George Allen (R) 48


NH-GOV (New England College): Maggie Hassan (D) 45, Ovide Lamontagne (R) 45


CA-33 (SurveyUSA): Rep. Brad Sherman (D) 44, Rep. Howard Berman (D) 33

IL-08 (Chicago Tribune): Tammy Duckworth (D) 50, Rep. Joe Walsh (R) 40

IA-01 (Victory Enterprises for the Lange campaign): Ben Lange (R) 47, Rep. Bruce Braley (D) 45

KY-06 (Wenzel Strategies for Citizens United--R): Andy Barr (R) 45, Rep. Ben Chandler (D) 41

NC-07 (Wenzel Strategies for Citizens United--R): David Rouzer (R) 45, Rep. Mike McIntyre (D) 39

OH-16 (OnMessage for the Renacci campaign): Rep. Jim Renacci (R) 51, Betty Sutton (D) 41

PA-12 (Wenzel Strategies for Citizens United--R): Keith Rothfus (R) 44, Mark Critz (D) 39

A few thoughts, as always, await you just past the jump ...


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