Friday, August 24, 2012

Daily Kos Elections Polling Wrap: Early signs of an 'Akin Effect' in Thursday's poll-a-palooza?

So, as it happened, Thursday was the day when pretty much every November race got polled. And, for the first time, a few of those polls were ones conducted after a weekend and early week dominated by the Todd Akin controversy.

Is it having a polling impact? The short, and easy answer is: perhaps. Without question, after two days of fairly mediocre polling (enough to bring an avalanche of Eeyores into the comments section of the Wrap), Thursday's numbers for the Democrats and for the president were markedly more positive than the ones that preceded them earlier in the week. However, it is most definitely premature to insist on the cause-and-effect of today's better polling news for the blue team.

With that, on with the (shitload of) numbers:

PRESIDENTIAL GENERAL ELECTION TRIAL HEATS:

NATIONAL (Fox News): Romney d. Obama (45-44)

NATIONAL (Gallup Tracking): Obama tied with Romney (46-46)

NATIONAL (LA Times/USC): Obama d. Romney (48-45)

NATIONAL (Rasmussen Tracking): Obama tied with Romney (45-45)

CONNECTICUT (Rasmussen): Obama d. Romney (51-43)

FLORIDA (Quinnipiac/CBS News): Obama d. Romney (49-46)

MICHIGAN (Glengariff Group for local media): Obama d. Romney (48-42)

MISSOURI (PPP): Romney d. Obama (52-42)

NEBRASKA 2nd DISTRICT (We Ask America'R): Romney d. Obama (47-43)

OHIO (Quinnipiac/CBS News): Obama d. Romney (50-44)

OHIO (Univ. of Cincinnati "Ohio Poll"): Obama d. Romney (49-46)

PENNSYLVANIA (Muhlenberg College/Allentown Morning Call): Obama d. Romney (49-40)

WISCONSIN (Quinnipiac/CBS News): Obama d. Romney (49-47)

DOWNBALLOT POLLING:
FL-SEN (Quinnipiac/CBS News): Sen. Bill Nelson (D) 50, Connie Mack IV (R) 41

MI-SEN (Glengariff Group for local media): Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) 48, Pete Hoekstra (R) 40

MO-GOV (PPP): Gov. Jay Nixon (D) 46, Dave Spence (R) 37

MO-SEN (Rasmussen): Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) 48, Todd Akin (R) 38

NE-02 (We Ask America'R): Rep. Lee Terry (R) 46, John Ewing (D) 40

NV-SEN (SurveyUSA): Sen. Dean Heller (R) 44, Shelley Berkley (D) 39

NM-SEN (Rasmussen): Martin Heinrich (D) 48, Heather Wilson (R) 41

NC-02 (PPP for the Wilkins campaign): Rep. Renee Ellmers (R) 44, Steve Wilkins (D) 28

NC-08 (Anzalone-Liszt for the Kissell campaign): Rep. Larry Kissell (D) 43, Richard Hudson (R) 39

OH-SEN (Quinnipiac/CBS News): Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) 48, Josh Mandel (R) 41

OH-SEN (Univ. of Cincinnati "Ohio Poll"): Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) 48, Josh Mandel (R) 47

TX-14 (Anzalone Liszt for the Lampson campaign): Nick Lampson (D) 44, Randy Weber (R) 40

VA-SEN (PPP): Tim Kaine (D) 46, George Allen (R) 46

WI-SEN (Quinnipiac/CBS News): Tommy Thompson (R) 50, Tammy Baldwin (D) 44

A few thoughts, as always, await you just past the jump...


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