Abbreviated Pundit Round-up: Why Romney isn't winning

Above is pollster.com aggregate without Rasmussen and Gallup. See explanation.

Above is Rasmussen and Gallup alone. "All polls included" is here.

Note that many pollsters are switching to Likely Voters (LV) but not all have. For the next few weeks, try and match apples to apples and pay attention to Registered Voters (RV) vs Likely Voters (LV) polls. And since everyone uses a different model, the difference will vary (7 points in the recent CNN poll, 1 in the LA Times poll.)

On LV...the models differ widely. Some pollsters will show big diff like CNN, others a point or two
' @MysteryPollster via Tweetbot for Mac
Charlie Cook chronicles some fundamental Romney errors:

Still, this race shouldn't be as tight as it is. Whether one looks at polling measurements of whether voters think the country is headed in the right direction, at consumer confidence, or at key economic measurements such as growth in gross domestic product, deviations in the unemployment rate, or the change in real personal disposable income, it is puzzling, to say the least, why polls show President Obama and Mitt Romney running neck and neck. Incumbents generally don't get reelected with numbers like we are seeing today.

And some responses/companion pieces, this from John Sides:

He's not a 'natural candidate.' He didn't air enough positive ads to make voters 'comfortable' with him.  He should have taken Rubio's position on immigration to win Latinos.  He shouldn't be having a discussion of Medicare.

Maybe those things are true.  Or maybe the economy just doesn't predict that Obama should be losing.  I've said it before and I'll say it again: many an  unduly complicated interpretation of an election began with a misreading of the fundamentals.  Fortunately, I don't need to say much more.  Just read Jon Bernstein, Jamelle Bouie, Matt Dickinson, and especially Sean Trende.

Why Is It So Hard to Get the Fundamentals Right? http://t.co/...
— @monkeycageblog via IFTTT

Matt Dickenson (please read in full):

My point is that even political scientists are not in full agreement regarding what aspects of the economy are most 'fundamental' to presidential election outcomes.  Moreover, each of their forecasts comes with a degree of uncertainty built into their estimates.  This means that, in a close election, forecast models that differ in their prediction regarding the election winner in November could nonetheless all be considered accurate if the final popular vote falls within their specified level of uncertainty.  Of course, this is small consolation to the layperson who wants to know now who the likely winner will be come November 6th, which is what most of you care about!  But it is important to remember that political scientists speak in probabilities, based on past events, not certainties.

Jamelle Bouie:

In other words, despite the conventional wisdom, it's not true that Romney should be winning. Barring rapid economic deterioration ' or a botched foreign policy crisis ' it's difficult to unseat a sitting president. All things considered, both Romney and Obama are doing about as well as you would expect.

EJ Dionne:

In my column today, I noted that I had interviewed Elizabeth Warren, the Democratic candidate for the U.S. Senate in Massachusetts. In the course of the interview, Warren offered what I thought were particularly interesting thoughts about the Affordable Care Act, and also about the role of her religious faith in her public engagement. I share a partial transcript of the interview here.

National Journal on Walmart moms:

But her passion sets her apart from most undecided women, according to research conducted by Momentum Analysis, a Democratic polling firm, and Public Opinion Strategies, a Republican firm. The pollsters have been studying 'Walmart moms''women with school-aged children who shop at the mega-store'since 2010. They conducted a focus group with them in June in Richmond, Va., and an online discussion with women from five battleground states, including Virginia.

'We would get a blank stare when we asked about women's issues,' said GOP pollster Alex Bratty, whose partner, Neil Newhouse, advises Romney. 'President Obama is raising an issue that these moms are not talking about. It's the wrong conversation.'

Even Bratty's Democratic partner in the study, Margie Omero, agreed that most women are not feeling targeted, although she added that they don't want the government involved in reproductive decisions. 'I think part of the Democratic strategy to talk about abortion and birth control is for motivating the base and for turnout and enthusiasm, not necessarily for reaching swing voters,' she said. 'Swing voters are not seeing a war on women. What they want is to make sure candidates understand their life struggles and what they're going through in a very empathetic way, and if you look at the polls, Obama definitely has the advantage on that.'

WaPo:

Former congressman Virgil H. Goode Jr. hand-delivered more than 20,500 signatures to Virginia election officials this week, hoping to become the next president of the United States. The move could instead make him the next Ralph Nader, the consumer advocate widely believed to have played the role of spoiler in the 2000 election.

You may remember VA is good(e) at kicking candidates off the ballot. Where there's a will...
' @LarrySabato via web
National Journal on the auto bailout:

The auto bailout (or rescue, as Democrats like to call it) is not a panacea in an election season in which poll after poll shows Romney comfortably ahead among white voters without college degrees. Men in that group, in particular, are turning away from the president in droves. The recession has left many white, blue-collar voters brimming with anger and anxiety about lost jobs or homes, stagnant or falling wages, high gas prices, and the possibility of worse to come. Some never supported Obama. Some who did are impatient for an economic fix and ready to try something'or somebody'new.

But a different story is developing in some states that rely on the auto industry. Its revival is helping Obama hold his own with noncollege voters in battlegrounds such as Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. Combined with Romney's inability so far to make the sale, that could make all the difference on Nov. 6.