Daily Kos Elections Polling Wrap: The state of play on 'Debate Day'

We're in a bit of a strange place tonight with the Polling Wrap, of course. With the first debate now in the books, there is no reliable way to know how the needle will move, if it moves at all, from tonight's contretemps.

If the cable pundits and spinners are right, we may have a "game changer". Of course, it is comforting to remember that they are often quite pointedly not right. So, y'know, there's that!

On to the numbers:

PRESIDENTIAL POLLING:

NATIONAL (Gallup Tracking): Obama 49, Romney 45

NATIONAL (GQR/Resurgent Republic for NPR): Obama 51, Romney 44

NATIONAL (Ipsos/Reuters Tracking): Obama 47, Romney 41 (LV); Obama 46, Romney 39 (RV)

NATIONAL (Rasmussen Tracking): Obama 49, Romney 47

NATIONAL (UPI/CVoter): Obama 49, Romney 46

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ARIZONA (PPP): Romney 53, Obama 44

FLORIDA (NBC News/Marist): Obama 47, Romney 46, Others 1 (LV); Obama 48, Romney 43, Others 2 (RV)

HAWAII (Merriman River Group for Civil Beat): Obama 62, Romney 30

MASSACHUSETTS (Mass Insight): Obama 60, Romney 34

MISSOURI (PPP): Romney 51, Obama 45

NORTH CAROLINA (Rasmussen): Romney 51, Obama 47

OHIO (NBC News/Marist): Obama 51, Romney 43, Others 1 (LV); Obama 51, Romney 42, Others 2 (RV)

VIRGINIA (NBC News/Marist): Obama 48, Romney 46, Others 1 (LV); Obama 48, Romney 45, Others 1 (LV)

WASHINGTON (SurveyUSA): Obama 56, Romney 36

WISCONSIN (Marquette Law School): Obama 53, Romney 42 (LV); Obama 54, Romney 40 (RV)

DOWNBALLOT POLLING:

AZ-SEN (PPP): Richard Carmona (D) 45, Jeff Flake (R) 43

FL-SEN (NBC News/Marist): Sen. Bill Nelson (D) 52, Connie Mack IV (R) 41 (LV); Sen. Bill Nelson (D) 52, Connie Mack IV (R) 38 (RV)

MA-SEN (Mass Insight): Elizabeth Warren (D) 48, Sen. Scott Brown (R) 44

MO-SEN (PPP): Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) 46, Todd Akin (R) 40, Jonathan Dine (L) 9

MO-SEN (Rasmussen): Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) 51, Todd Akin (R) 45

OH-SEN (NBC News/Marist): Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) 50, Josh Mandel (R) 41 (LV); Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) 50, Josh Mandel (R) 41 (RV)

WI-SEN (Marquette Law School): Tammy Baldwin (D) 48, Tommy Thompson (R) 44 (LV); Tammy Baldwin (D) 47, Tommy Thompson (R) 43 (RV)

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CO-03 (Grove Insight for the DCCC): Rep. Scott Tipton (R) 42, Sal Pace (D) 39, Others 5

FL-10 (Global Strategy Group for the DCCC): Rep. Dan Webster (R) 46, Val Demings (D) 41

MI-01 (Benenson Strategy for the DCCC): Gary McDowell (D) 43, Rep. Dan Benishek (R) 40, Others 9

MI-09 (North Star Campaign Systems for the Volaric campaign): Rep. Sander Levin (D) 44, Don Valor (R) 42

NV-03 (Global Strategy Group for the DCCC): Rep. Joe Heck (R) 42, John Oceguera (D) 38

NH-01 (Public Opinion Strategies for the Guinta campaign): Rep. Frank Guinta (R) 51, Carol Shea-Porter (D) 43

NH-01 (Univ. of New Hampshire w/leaners): Carol Shea-Porter (D) 47, Rep. Frank Guinta (R) 38, Others 1

NH-02 (Univ. of New Hampshire w/leaners): Anne McLane Kuster (D) 42, Rep. Charlie Bass (R) 41, Others 2

NY-21 (Global Strategy Group for the Owens campaign): Rep. Bill Owens (D) 50, Matt Doheny (R) 36

NY-21 (Public Opinion Strategies for the Doheny campaign): Rep. Bill Owens (D) 45, Matt Doheny (R) 40

NC-08 (Anzalone-Liszt for the Kissell campaign): Rep. Larry Kissell (D) 40, Richard Hudson (R) 39

SC-07 (Winthrop University): Tom Rice (R) 49, Gloria Tinubu (D) 36

A few thoughts, as always, await you just past the jump...