Tuesday, August 14, 2012

Daily Kos Elections Connecticut, Florida, Minnesota and Wisconsin primary preview

Voters in four states select candidates in primaries tonight: Connecticut, Florida, Minnesota and Wisconsin. We've written up all the key races below, and we've also provided interactive, zoomable Google Maps versions of each state's new congressional map where appropriate.

Interactive map of Connecticut's new congressional districts ' CT-Sen (D & R): In the race to replace retiring Sen. Joe Lieberman, Rep. Chris Murphy has always held sizeable leads over ex-SoS Susan Bysiewicz in the Democratic primary; the same has been true for quite a while in the GOP primary, with pro-wrestling mogul (and 2010 nominee) Linda McMahon soundly beating ex-Rep. Chris Shays. If you meet someone who wants to bet on either underdog, take the other side of that wager.

' CT-05 (D & R): The contest for the Democratic nomination in the seat left open by Chris Murphy's Senate bid has taken some very unexpected turns over the past few months. State House Speaker Chris Donovan had long been the frontrunner, locking up near-total support from labor unions. But the arrest of his finance director (and, later, his former campaign manager) on campaign finance fraud charges dealt a serious blow to Donovan's efforts, even though he's never been implicated in any wrongdoing. That left an opening for ex-state Rep. Elizabeth Esty, who self-funded for half a million but also has the backing of EMILY's List, which has run ads and sent out mailers on her behalf.

But a funny thing happened late in the game: Young PR exec Dan Roberti, boosted by a Super PAC tied to his wealthy and powerful lobbyist father, started coming on strong with attacks directed at both Donovan and Esty. Esty then turned her fire on Roberti (who has self funded even more), potentially giving Donovan the chance to re-emerge as the one guy who hasn't really been caught up in this ugly firefight. (Donovan did go negative on Esty, but I suspect Roberti and Esty's ads, including third-party spots, have been in heavier rotation.) This looks like it could be anybody's game.

Meanwhile, thanks to the hot-running war between the Democrats, the GOP side of the contest hasn't gotten nearly as much attention. Out of the four candidates, two unsuccessfully sought the nomination in 2010: Afghanistan war veteran Justin Bernier and businessman Mark Greenberg. Two new players are also in the mix: state Sen. Andrew Roraback and businesswoman (and 2010 LG candidate) Lisa Wilson-Foley. Once again, Greenberg's self-funded over seven figures, but that only netted him a third-place finish last time. Wilson-Foley's also put in a lot of personal cash (more than half a mil), but the man Democrats fear most is Roraback, who has the most moderate reputation of the field. Indeed, the Democrat-aligned Super PAC Patriot Majority USA even ran $200K worth of negative ads in an effort to deny Roraback his party's nod. Without any public polling, it's very hard to get a read on this primary, but despite the negative attacks on him, Roraback could sneak through if the other three players'all much more conservative'split the vote.

Head below the fold for the rest of our writeups.


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