Abbreviated Pundit Round-up: Ryan? Really?

US News:

The Illogic of Romney Picking Paul Ryan for Vice President

There's an argument that the three polls out yesterday giving Obama an outside-the-margin-of-error lead could also spur a game-changing pick a la Ryan. "The conventional wisdom had been that Romney was going to be picking a running mate in a coin-flip race. Well that's not the case now. How does that change his mind? Does it help Paul Ryan?" asks "First Read," adding that Romney has gone from picking a running mate from a position of strength to "picking one from a position of weakness." That seems a bit strong, especially based on one set of polls. Does the Romney team want to exacerbate a perception of weakness by making what could be seen as a panicky pick (a sop to a jittery base, a Hail Mary in the face of a widening gap in the polls, and a whiplash-inducing strategic change from deliberate policy vagueness to a highly controversial off-the-shelf economic agenda).

Yep.

Ross Douthat:

This will make the race more exciting and more serious, and I'm looking forward to watching it play out. But I don't think it's made a Romney victory more likely.

Paul Ryan? Seriously? Is the #RomneyRyan2012 logo just going to be a middle finger waving at the poor?
' @elonjames via Twitter for iPad Nate Silver:

When is it rational to take a big risk?

When the status quo wasn't proceeding in a way that you felt was favorable. When you have less to lose. When you needed ' pardon the cliché, but it's appropriate here ' a 'game change'.

When a prudent candidate like Mitt Romney picks someone like Representative Paul D. Ryan of Wisconsin as his running mate, it suggests that he felt he held a losing position against President Obama. The theme that Mr. Romney's campaign has emphasized for months and months ' that the president has failed as an economic leader ' may have persuaded 47 or 48 or 49 percent of voters to vote for him, he seems to have concluded. But not 50.1 percent of them, and not enough for Mr. Romney to secure 270 electoral votes.

Ezra Klein:

1. Both Democrats and conservatives are going to get the exact debate they wanted. I'm not so sure about Republicans.

2. This is an admission of fear from the Romney campaign. You don't make a risky pick like Paul Ryan if you think the fundamentals favor your candidate. You make a risky pick like Paul Ryan if you think the fundamentals don't favor your candidate. And, right now, the numbers don't look good for Romney: Obama leads in the Real Clear Politics average of polls by more than four percentage points ' his largest lead since April.

3. Related point: Two of the top contenders in the Romney campaign's veepstakes were Ohio's Rob Portman and Florida's Marco Rubio. Given that there's fairly good evidence that vice presidential candidates are worth at least a point or two in their home states, the Romney campaign's decision to pick Ryan is evidence that they feel they need to change the national dynamic, not just pick off a battleground state.

Despite all the focus on Ryan, this contest - like all other modern presidential races - will come down to the principals, not the No.2s
' @mmurraypolitics via TweetDeck Craig Crawford:

WI Rep. Paul Ryan's plan to privatize Medicare is about as politically toxic as it gets. In picking this darling of conservative elites Romney is spread eagle on the third rail.

Now we know he knows it. This decision shows just how insecure he is about holding his party's base. He got bullied into this, the most telling sign yet that he is desperate.

Intrade markets are unchanged (59/34 Obama).
Just asking, but what does the USS Wisconsin have to do with the economy and the narrative of this ticket?
' @DomenicoNBC via TweetDeck ABC:

THE RISK IS OBVIOUS: This race is now fought on territory that has long been favorable to Democrats. Voters trust Democrats more on issues relating to entitlement programs and are inherently suspicious of Republicans on the issue.

THE REWARDS ARE LESS CLEAR: In picking Ryan, the Romney campaign is gambling that a debate on substance is thing that voters are hungry for. It is also an acknowledgement that a campaign fought on the terrain and issues that it has been for the last few weeks is not one that they can win.

This forced earnest look is killing me. At least that woman in 2008 could give a speech...
' @CharlesMBlow via web Rick Klein:

Paul Ryan Choice Could Ignite Ideological War

Choosing Ryan is a tacit acknowledgment by the campaign that its initial assumptions about the race ' that it's a coin flip, that Romney's biography and experience could speak for itself, that making the race a referendum on President Obama was enough ' no longer apply. Yes, Romney had already embraced the Ryan budget. But he'd done so tenderly and reluctantly, checking a box. Now Romney has invited Ryan himself into his own box.
No other choice came with ready-made policy that's anywhere near as defining for the candidate or the party. No other candidate would immediately tip the balance of the campaign like Ryan. The question for the new Romney-Ryan is whether it will tip in their direction, or wildly in the other way.

Aaron Blake/The fix:

Poll after poll shows that Americans, while wanting to cut waste in the budget, are strongly resistant to any major cuts or changes in federal entitlement programs. By proposing to overhaul Medicare, Democrats argue, Ryan has handed them an ace in the 2012 election, in large part because many members of the House have voted for the budget and can easily be attached to it.

Frank Bruni:

There have long been two theories about presidential elections. One is that they're won in the middle, by the candidate who can pivot most successfully to the center and pick up the swing voters there. The other is that they're won by the candidate who gets higher turnout from voters always inclined to support him or her.

The Ryan selection seems to endorse and put stock in the second theory. The severity of his budget proposals and his intellectual romance with Ayn Rand don't strike me as big turn-ons for a large number of independents and moderates, many of whom will deem him'and maybe, by extension, the nominee who chose him'as too callous: as the man in that political ad who pushes grandma in her wheelchair all the way off the cliff. But true conservatives? Many are doing cartwheels right now.

The Ryan selection also tells us that the Romney campaign had, over the last month, grown less confident than it was and less confident than it pretended to be. If you're sure you're ahead and if you're sure that voters are going to make a decision solely about Obama, you indeed do no harm. And thus do no Ryan.

But if you feel yourself possibly slipping behind, and you finally come to the conclusion that you have to play some offense as well as defense, you steer away from the choices that would have been analyzed as too boring and too bland. Ryan is a great many things. Boring and bland aren't two of them.

Ryan pick shows Romney figured out what we knew... he is losing
' @DemFromCT via TweetDeck Miami Herald:

Bottom line: Seniors would have to pay more out of pocket in the future than they're paying now. Services could be cut. Right now, about 3.4 million are on Medicare in Florida, which receives about $25.2 billion from the program. Ryan and Romney also want to cap expenditures for Medicaid, a massive $21.4 billion state-federal program in Florida that accounts for a quarter of the state's budget and has grown in the bad economy. About 3.3 million Floridians receive Medicaid.

Ryan and the plan's defenders point out that nothing's free. Someone's always paying something out of pocket for Medicare or any other government program. On its current path, Medicare isn't sustainable. And more and more seniors are buying supplemental insurance to cover Medicare expenses now, making the system appear more voucher-like over time. Ryan said he's trying to save, not end, Medicare.