For sure, there may be no more persistent recurring theme in the presidential election of 2012 than the ceaseless (and often perplexing) divergence between national polls that have shown a genuine coin flip between the two presidential candidates, and state polls that have shown the president in a rather modest but consistent advantage, portending an electoral college majority than has almost always wavered between around 280-330 electoral votes.
This has led election observers and analysts to spend most of the latter half of October in endless speculation about the prospect of a virtual "split decision" next week. For the first time in a dozen years, the pundit class was forecasting a very real prospect of a Romney victory in the national popular vote, but an Obama win in the electoral college.
Is this even remotely possible? There is a mathematical chance of it, of course. But there is a more-than-respectable case to be made that, if the state polls are indeed correct, there is virtually no way that Mitt Romney can cobble together a plurality of the popular vote.
More on that after the jump. For now, though, on to the numbers:
PRESIDENTIAL POLLING:
NATIONAL (ABC/WaPo Tracking): Obama 49, Romney 48DOWNBALLOT POLLING:NATIONAL (High Point University): Obama 46, Romney 43
NATIONAL (Ipsos/Reuters Tracking): Obama 47, Romney 46 (LV); Obama 47, Romney 43 (RV)
NATIONAL (Rasmussen Tracking): Romney 49, Obama 47
NATIONAL (UPI/CVoter): Obama 48, Romney 48
COLORADO (CallFire/Faith Horizon): Obama 49, Romney 48 (LV); Obama 49, Romney 48 (RV)
COLORADO (CNN/Opinion Research): Obama 50, Romney 48 (LV); Obama 52, Romney 44 (RV)
COLORADO (Rasmussen): Romney 50, Obama 47
IOWA (CallFire/Faith Horizon): Obama 50, Romney 47
IOWA (NBC News/Marist): Obama 50, Romney 44 (LV); Obama 49, Romney 43 (RV)
IOWA (Rasmussen): Romney 49, Obama 48
MICHIGAN (PPP for HCAN): Obama 53, Romney 45
MINNESOTA (SurveyUSA): Obama 50, Romney 43
NEVADA (SurveyUSA): Obama 50, Romney 46
NEW HAMPSHIRE (NBC News/Marist): Obama 49, Romney 47 (LV); Obama 49, Romney 46 (RV)
NORTH CAROLINA (High Point University): Romney 46, Obama 45
OHIO (Wenzel Strategies--R): Romney 49, Obama 46
RHODE ISLAND (Fleming and Associates): Obama 54, Romney 33
VIRGINIA (PPP for HCAN): Obama 49, Romney 46
WASHINGTON (SurveyUSA): Obama 54, Romney 40
WASHINGTON (Univ. of Washington): Obama 57, Romney 36
WISCONSIN (NBC News/Marist): Obama 49, Romney 46 (LV); Obama 49, Romney 45 (RV)
WISCONSIN (Rasmussen): Obama 49, Romney 49
WISCONSIN (St. Norbert College): Obama 51, Romney 42
WISCONSIN (Wenzel Strategies--R): Obama 49, Romney 47
HI-SEN (Merriman River Group): Mazie Hirono (D) 55, Linda Lingle (R) 40A few thoughts, as always, await you just past the jump ...MN-SEN (SurveyUSA): Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D) 60, Kurt Bills (R) 29
OH-SEN (Wenzel Strategies--R): Josh Mandel (R) 50, Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) 45
WA-SEN (Univ. of Washington): Sen. Maria Cantwell (D) 61, Michael Baumgartner (R) 33
WI-SEN (NBC News/Marist): Tammy Baldwin (D) 48, Tommy Thompson (R) 47 (LV); Tammy Baldwin (D) 48, Tommy Thompson (R) 46
WI-SEN (St. Norbert College): Tommy Thompson (R) 46, Tammy Baldwin (D) 43
WI-SEN (Wenzel Strategies--R): Tommy Thompson (R) 47, Tammy Baldwin (D) 45
NH-GOV (NBC News/Marist): Maggie Hassan (D) 49, Ovide Lamontagne (R) 44 (LV); Maggie Hassan (D) 49, Ovide Lamontagne (R) 43 (RV)
WA-GOV (SurveyUSA): Jay Inslee (D) 47, Rob McKenna (R) 46
WA-GOV (Univ. of Washington): Jay Inslee (D) 49, Rob McKenna (R) 46
CA-52 (SurveyUSA): Scott Peters (D) 46, Rep. Brian Bilbray (R) 46
NY-11 (Siena): Rep. Michael Grimm (R) 52, Mark Murphy (D) 34
NY-21 (Global Strategy Group for the Owens campaign): Rep. Bill Owens (D) 47, Matt Doheny (R) 40
NY-21 (Public Opinion Strategies for the Doheny campaign): Rep. Bill Owens (D) 42, Matt Doheny (R) 40
NY-21 (Siena): Rep. Bill Owens (D) 44, Matt Doheny (R) 43
NY-25 (Siena): Rep. Louise Slaughter (D) 52, Maggie Brooks (R) 42
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