Friday, November 30, 2012

Barack Obama '51 percent watch': 50.91

People view various newspaper front pages showing President Barack Obama's victory over Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney on display at the Newseum in Washington November 7, 2012. Fresh from a decisive re-election win, Obama returns from the campaign trail on Wednesday with little time to savor victory, facing urgent economic challenges, a looming fiscal showdown and a still-divided Congress able to block his every move.       REUTERS/Gary Cameron Getting bigger by the day. In Wednesday's edition of this feature, toshiaki listed the margins of victory of presidential elections going back to Nixon:
'0.51% 2000 GWB
0.17% 1960 JFK
0.70% 1968 Nixon
2.06% 1976 Carter
2.46% 2004 GWB
3.52% 2012 Obama
4.48% 1948 Truman
5.56% 1992 Clinton
7.27% 2008 Obama
7.72% 1988 GHWB
8.51% 1996 Clinton
9.74% 1980 Reagan
10.85% 1952 Ike
15.40% 1956 Ike
18.21% 1984 Reagan
22.58% 1964 LBJ
23.15% 1972 Nixon
President Barack Obama won't surpass Truman, but a 4 percent margin of victory is still within reach.

Per Dave Wasserman's running tally. Compared to Wednesday's numbers, Obama gained a tenth of a point Thursday and Mitt Romney lost two tenths: Obama 50.91, Romney 47.36. Obama will be the first president two reach 51 percent of the popular vote in two elections since Dwight D. Eisenhower. Not even Ronald Reagan managed that feat.

There are still a million-ish votes that haven't been reported from New York and New Jersey, and another 545,000 in California. As I write this Thursday night, it doesn't look like Wasserman has tallied all of the 260,000 or so California votes reported Thursday.

Three new states and D.C. have certified their votes:

CT becomes 19th state to certify its election results, although I'm not sure they're public with their final count: https://t.co/...
' @Redistrict via web

Obama won the state 58.09-40.75, pissing off a lot of hedge fund managers in Stamford.

DC becomes 20th to certify tally: @BarackObama 267,070 @MittRomney 21,381. Largest raw vote jump in U.S. (10.5%): https://t.co/...
' @Redistrict via web

D.C. has Republicans?

Maine becomes 20th state to finalize results: @BarackObama 401,306 (+3,263) @MittRomney 292,276 (+1,598). https://t.co/...
' @Redistrict via web

American Crossroads (Karl Rove's outfit) tried to claim that Romney could pull off an electoral vote in Maine (which apportions one EV to each of its two congressional districts). In early October they had Obama winning the state by just 48-44, and losing in the 2nd congressional district 49-44.

Well, Obama won the state by about 15 percent (56.27-40.98), and won the 2nd CD 55-43. Rove is so incompetent, I can't believe people still think he has super powers.

Wisconsin becomes 21st state to certify its results: @BarackObama 1,620,985 @MittRomney 1,410,966. Nearly 7% spread: https://t.co/...
' @Redistrict via web

Wasn't close.

Final WI numbers: @RepPaulRyan won #WI01 reelect 200,423 to 158,414, but by my calc, Romney/Ryan only carried it 195,835 to 179,872
' @Redistrict via web

Damn, a lot of Obama voters didn't bother casting votes downballot. Not that it would've made a difference in the final outcome, but it demonstrates a continuing problem with educating our base on the importance of voting for Dems all the way down the ballot.

And on a final note, want to get pissed off at gerrymandering some more?

U.S. House popular vote: By my count, Democrats have taken a 652,362 vote lead while winning just 201 seats: https://t.co/...
' @Redistrict via web

We need to see more initiatives pass like the ones in Arizona, Florida and California that mandate non-partisan line drawing. Ohio, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Virginia, in particular, have offensive gerrymanders unrepresentative of their state's electorate.


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