Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest: Bill Bolling bails on VA-Gov race... but says he might run indie

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' VA-Gov: Once in a while, I do get things right. Back in June, Republicans formally did away with their primary and instead choose their gubernatorial nominee via convention. Concentrating decision-making power in the hands of the hardest-core activists was only going to benefit Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli, a movement conservative darling, and make life impossible for Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling, the establishment choice who'd patiently waited his turn to run for governor. And what did I say at the time?

I'm not even sure how Bolling has any shot at the nomination now and I wouldn't be surprised if he gave up.

On Wednesday, bowing to the inevitable, Bolling did indeed drop out of the race. I don't even think he could have won an ordinary primary, but a convention was definitely a fridge too far'something he himself recognized in saying that party regulars had put up "too many obstacles for us to overcome" by deliberately choosing the convention route.

But Bolling did manage to surprise me with this wild curveball: In response to a direct question about whether he might run as an independent instead, Bolling explicitly refused to rule out the notion, saying: "I learned a long time ago in politics that you shouldn't ever say never." The query was prompted by his declaration that he was only "suspending," not ending, his campaign'and not even his campaign in general, but rather only his "campaign for the Republican Party's nomination for Governor of Virginia." Bolling even said he intends to remain involved "as a more independent voice." It's hard to see how Bolling wouldn't hurt Cuccinelli far more than the eventual Democratic nominee if he were on the ballot as an indie, but I'd love to see some polling of a three-way.

(Oh, and nuts to any talk about Bolling seeking re-election. Get a load of how bad the blood is here: "Under normal circumstances, I would be open to the possibility of running for another term as lieutenant governor, but I would not be interested in running on a statewide ticket with Mr. Cuccinelli." However, a whole ton of other Republicans have already declared their plans to run for lite gov, though, and guess what? That nod, as with the gubernatorial slot, will also get decided via convention. So it's possible Bolling would have even gotten squeezed out of renomination to his own job. Double ouch.)

As for the governor's race, I'm going to say that this move is not a major positive for Democrats, and if anything might be a negative. Bolling tended to slightly out-perform Cuccinelli in hypothetical head-to-head matchups with Democrats, and the Cooch definitely has worse favorability ratings with left-leaning voters, so there's little doubt Dems would prefer to face him in the general. But that was already extremely likely'as I say, it's why Bolling dropped out.

Still, though, a nomination fight would have pushed the already-mega-wingnutty Cuccinelli even further to the right (and forced him to spend some money), whereas now he can try to moderate himself a bit. That said, Cuccinelli is a true believer and probably is intellectually disinclined to changing his profile'and in any event, it's not like he doesn't already have a long track record of extreme statements and actions that can be used against him. So for all this sturm und drang, I expect Bolling's departure to change little'assuming, of course, he doesn't make a third-party bid.

P.S. There's also a little bit of news on the Democratic side, where "sources close to" ex-Rep. Tom Perriello, a favorite of many progressives, tell the Huffington Post that he's considering a run for governor. That would set him up (in a normal primary'Dems don't do the convention thing) against 2009 candidate and former DNC chief Terry McAuliffe.