Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest: John Kasich's approvals improve, but his head-to-heads are weak

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' OH-Gov: Quinnipiac's new Ohio poll offers their first-ever horserace matchups featuring GOP Gov. John Kasich, but the number to watch out for at the moment is his approval rating. Somehow his numbers have spiked to 53-32, up from 42-35 just a couple of months ago. Whenever you see a big jump like that over a short period of time, you ought to be a little bit skeptical; notably, Quinnipiac's writeup doesn't really try to explain why Kasich would have soared in such a short period of time. So I'd keep an eye on these figures to see if they stay where they are when Quinnipiac is next in the field, or whether they drift back downward into the low 40s Kasich saw all last year.

The good news for Democrats, though, is that he's far from dominant in the head-to-heads:

' 44-38 vs. former state AG Richard Cordray

' 45-38 vs. former Rep. Betty Sutton

' 44-36 vs. Rep. Tim Ryan

' 45-35 vs. Cuyahoga County Executive Ed FitzGerald

It's actually has to be a bit painful for Kasich to scratch together an approval score over 50 percent but to see himself mired at 45 percent against a variety of unknown candidates. And they really are unknown: The most recognizable is Cordray, and yet 62 percent of respondents say they don't have an opinion of him. (FitzGerald trails the pack at 80 percent unknown.) This is mirrored in Kasich's generic re-elects, where 46 percent of voters say they'd like to see him win another term versus 36 percent who do not.

That said, it's not like Kasich will be a pushover. Democrats lack a dominant candidate, and Kasich will have no shortage of money. But it's still very early, and whoever winds up as the Dem nominee will make up that name recognition gap in a hurry, so this seat is very much in play.