The rate of polling volume ticked up quite markedly, though there is still a bit of a hangover as the East Coast still tries to recover from Superstorm Sandy. Wednesday saw an uptick of data, with 62 polls released on Wednesday. That's nearly double what we saw yesterday, but is still a far cry for the triple-digit polling load we saw on Monday. Despite the (comparably) modest sample size, the trajectory of today's numbers are pretty unmistakeable. This was, on balance, the worst polling day for Mitt Romney since the heady days (for Democrats, at least) of mid-to-late September. Not only did all the old "battleground" states come in a little weaker for him than recent polling averages would indicate, a couple of them (Ohio, Iowa, and Wisconsin) came in significantly worse.
What's more: the one state where he did get some halfway decent data yesterday (Michigan) betrayed him today, as a new poll there shows the state quite a bit more comfortable for him than yesterday's Glengariff poll suggested.
Meanwhile, in the community of election junkies, much breath and ink has been spilled on what appears to be a conscious effort on the part of the Romney campaign to "expand" the political map with forays into places like Pennsylvania, Minnesota, and Michigan.
Republicans say that they have legitimate prospects in a number of states that have long been conceded to President Obama. Democrats argue that these states are still a pipe dream, and that this "expansion" is one part head fake, one part concession that Romney's prospects in the "battlegrounds" are not as strong as advertised.
Today, I'll explore the possibility that both of these arguments could easily be correct.
More on that after the jump. For now, though, on to the numbers:
PRESIDENTIAL POLLING:
NATIONAL (ABC/WaPo Tracking): Obama 49, Romney 49DOWNBALLOT POLLING:NATIONAL (Fox News): Obama 46, Romney 46 (LV); Obama 46, Romney 45 (RV)
NATIONAL (Ipsos/Reuters Tracking): Obama 47, Romney 46 (LV); Obama 47, Romney 43 (RV)
NATIONAL (National Journal/United Technologies): Obama 50, Romney 45
NATIONAL (Rasmussen Tracking): Romney 49, Obama 47
NATIONAL (UPI/CVoter): Obama 48, Romney 48
NATIONAL (YouGov): Obama 48, Romney 47 (LV); Obama 48, Romney 46 (RV)
COLORADO (Ipsos-Reuters): Romney 46, Obama 45
COLORADO (We Ask America--R): Obama 50, Romney 47
FLORIDA (CBS News/Quinnipiac): Obama 48, Romney 47
FLORIDA (Gravis--R): Romney 50, Obama 47
FLORIDA (Ipsos-Reuters): Obama 47, Romney 47
FLORIDA (Mellman Group--D): Obama 49, Romney 47
FLORIDA (We Ask America--R): Romney 50, Obama 49
ILLINOIS (We Ask America--R): Obama 57, Romney 41
INDIANA (McLaughlin and Associates for the Mourdock campaign): Romney 57, Obama 39
IOWA (PPP for HCAN): Obama 50, Romney 45
IOWA (Univ. of Iowa): Romney 45, Obama 44
IOWA (We Ask America--R): Obama 49, Romney 47
MASSACHUSETTS (Rasmussen): Obama 59, Romney 40
MICHIGAN (EPIC-MRA): Obama 48, Romney 42
MICHIGAN (Glengariff Group): Obama 48, Romney 45
MISSOURI (We Ask America--R): Romney 54, Obama 42
NEBRASKA (Gravis--R): Romney 61, Obama 39
NORTH CAROLINA (PPP): Obama 49, Romney 49
OHIO (CBS News/Quinnipiac): Obama 50, Romney 45
OHIO (Ipsos-Reuters): Obama 48, Romney 45
OHIO (PPP for HCAN): Obama 50, Romney 45
OHIO (Univ. of Cincinnati): Obama 48, Romney 46
PENNSYLVANIA (Franklin and Marshall): Obama 49, Romney 45 (LV); Obama 48, Romney 44 (RV)
VIRGINIA (CBS News/Quinnipiac): Obama 49, Romney 47
VIRGINIA (Ipsos-Reuters): Obama 48, Romney 46
VIRGINIA (Roanoke College): Romney 46, Obama 41
WISCONSIN (Marquette Law School): Obama 51, Romney 43 (LV); Obama 51, Romney 42 (RV)
WISCONSIN (PPP for HCAN): Obama 51, Romney 46
FL-SEN (CBS News/Quinnipiac): Sen. Bill Nelson (D) 52, Connie Mack IV (R) 39A few thoughts, as always, await you just past the jump ...FL-SEN (Gravis--R): Sen. Bill Nelson (D) 49, Connie Mack IV (R) 46
FL-SEN (Ipsos-Reuters): Sen. Bill Nelson (D) 52, Connie Mack IV (R) 42
IN-SEN (Clarity Campaigns for the DGA): Joe Donnelly (D) 49, Richard Mourdock (R) 42
IN-SEN (Global Strategy Group for the Donnelly campaign): Joe Donnelly (D) 43, Richard Mourdock (R) 36, Andy Horning (L) 9
IN-SEN (McLaughlin and Associates for the Mourdock campaign): Richard Mourdock (R) 45, Joe Donnelly (D) 44, Andy Horning (L) 4
MI-SEN (EPIC-MRA): Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) 54, Pete Hoekstra (R) 33
MI-SEN (Glengariff Group): Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) 52, Pete Hoekstra (R) 38
MO-SEN (We Ask America--R): Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) 49, Todd Akin (R) 45, Jonathan Dine (L) 6
NE-SEN (Gravis--R): Deb Fischer (R) 56, Bob Kerrey (D) 44
NV-SEN (SurveyUSA): Sen. Dean Heller (R) 46, Shelley Berkley (D) 40, David VanderBeek (IAP) 6
OH-SEN (CBS News/Quinnipiac): Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) 51, Josh Mandel (R) 42
OH-SEN (Ipsos-Reuters): Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) 49, Josh Mandel (R) 41
OH-SEN (Rasmussen): Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) 50, Josh Mandel (R) 48
OH-SEN (Univ. of Cincinnati): Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) 49, Josh Mandel (R) 44
PA-SEN (Franklin and Marshall): Sen. Bob Casey (D) 48, Tom Smith (R) 39 (LV); Sen. Bob Casey (D) 46, Tom Smith (R) 35 (RV)
RI-SEN (Fleming and Associates): Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (R) 55, Barry Hinckley (D) 33
VA-SEN (CBS News/Quinnipiac): Tim Kaine (D) 50, George Allen (R) 46
VA-SEN (Roanoke College): George Allen (R) 47, Tim Kaine (D) 42
WI-SEN (Feldman Group for the Baldwin campaign): Tammy Baldwin (D) 48, Tommy Thompson (R) 45
WI-SEN (Marquette Law School): Tammy Baldwin (D) 47 Tommy Thompson (R) 43 (LV); Tammy Baldwin (D) 46, Tommy Thompson (R) 42 (RV)
IN-GOV (Clarity Campaigns for the DGA): Mike Pence (R) 47, John Gregg (D) 44
IN-GOV (The Polling Company for the Pence campaign): Mike Pence (R) 46, John Gregg (D) 37, Rupert Boneham (L) 5
NC-GOV (PPP): Pat McCrory (R) 50, Walter Dalton (D) 39, Barbara Howe (L) 4
ND-GOV (Mason Dixon): Gov. Jack Dalrymple (R) 62, Ryan Taylor (D) 28
NE-02 (Gravis--R): Rep. Lee Terry (R) 57, John Ewing (D) 43
RI-02 (Fleming and Associates): Rep. Jim Langevin (D) 48, Michael Riley (R) 31, Abel Collins (I) 9
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