The Friday before the election was, as expected, a fairly heavy polling day, as we logged a "Friday lite" record of 79 polls. On balance, it was a very good polling day for the president in the state polls, and a slightly more mixed one in the national polls, which is a mere perpetuation of a theme we have seen developing for what feels like years, at this point. Even in the national polls, however, there is some movement. For the third consecutive day, Barack Obama held a lead in the "average" of national polls released today. Of course, the word "lead" is stretching it: today, that lead was 0.14 percentage points. In none of the three days in question was the lead over a single point.
Of course, during the Romney "surge", his average national polling lead was similar in size (or lack thereof).
The bottom line is this: for the first time in a long time, the polls and the media narrative are starting to line up as the clock winds down towards Election Day. That is not good news for Mitt Romney, as the growing narrative is that Obama is riding somewhat of a wave as he heads into the final weekend of the 2012 election.
More on that, and if the numbers bear it out, after the jump. For now, though, on to the numbers:
PRESIDENTIAL POLLING:
NATIONAL (ABC/WaPo Tracking): Romney 49, Obama 48DOWNBALLOT POLLING:NATIONAL (Ipsos/Reuters Tracking): Obama 46, Romney 46 (LV); Obama 47, Romney 44 (RV)
NATIONAL (PPP Tracking): Obama 49, Romney 48
NATIONAL (Purple Strategies): Obama 47, Romney 46
NATIONAL (Rasmussen Tracking): Obama 48, Romney 48
NATIONAL (UPI/CVoter): Obama 48, Romney 48
NATIONAL (Zogby for the Washington Times): Obama 49, Romney 49
CALIFORNIA (Field Poll): Obama 54, Romney 39
COLORADO (Ipsos-Reuters Tracking): Obama 46, Romney 46
COLORADO (PPP for LCV): Obama 50, Romney 46
COLORADO (SurveyUSA): Obama 47, Romney 45
CONNECTICUT (PPP): Obama 55, Romney 42
FLORIDA (Ipsos-Reuters Tracking): Obama 48, Romney 46
GEORGIA (20/20 Insight for a Better Georgia): Romney 52, Obama 46
HAWAII (Merriman River for Civil Beat): Obama 61, Romney 34
INDIANA (Bellwether/Garin-Hart-Yang for the Howey Report): Romney 50, Obama 41
INDIANA (McLaughlin and Associates for the Mourdock campaign): Romney 54, Obama 41
INDIANA (Rasmussen): Romney 52, Obama 43
IOWA (Gravis Marketing--R): Obama 49, Romney 45
IOWA (Mellman Group for Americans United for Change): Obama 46, Romney 44
MAINE (PPP): Obama 55, Romney 42
MAINE-02 (Gravis Marketing--R): Obama 50, Romney 47
MAINE-02 (PPP): Obama 51, Romney 46
MASSACHUSETTS (Kimball Consulting--R): Obama 54, Romney 41
MASSACHUSETTS (PPP): Obama 57, Romney 42
MICHIGAN (Grove Insight for Project New America/USAction): Obama 48, Romney 41
MICHIGAN (PPP for LCV): Obama 52, Romney 46
MICHIGAN (Rasmussen): Obama 52, Romney 47
MINNESOTA (PPP for LCV): Obama 53, Romney 44
NEBRASKA (We Ask America--R): Romney 54, Obama 41
NEVADA (Mellman Group for Americans United for Change): Obama 50, Romney 44
NEW HAMPSHIRE (Gravis Marketing--R): Obama 50, Romney 49
NEW HAMPSHIRE (New England College): Obama 50, Romney 44
OHIO (CNN/ORC): Obama 50, Romney 47 (LV); Obama 52, Romney 45 (RV)
OHIO (Ipsos-Reuters Tracking): Obama 47, Romney 45
OHIO (Rasmussen): Obama 49, Romney 49
OHIO (We Ask America--R): Obama 50, Romney 46
OREGON (PPP): Obama 52, Romney 46
SOUTH DAKOTA (Nielson Brothers): Romney 50, Obama 42
UTAH (Dan Jones and Associates): Romney 69, Obama 26
VIRGINIA (Ipsos-Reuters Tracking): Obama 48, Romney 45
VIRGINIA (We Ask America--R): Obama 49, Romney 48
WISCONSIN (We Ask America--R): Obama 52, Romney 45
CA-SEN (Field Poll): Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) 54, Elizabeth Emken (R) 33A few thoughts, as always, await you just past the jump ...CT-SEN (PPP): Chris Murphy (D) 52, Linda McMahon (R) 43
FL-SEN (Ipsos-Reuters): Sen. Bill Nelson (D) 53, Connie Mack IV (R) 41
IN-SEN (Bellwether/Garin-Hart-Yang for the Howey Report): Joe Donnelly (D) 47, Richard Mourdock (R) 36, Andy Horning (L) 6
IN-SEN (McLaughlin and Associates for the Mourdock campaign): Richard Mourdock (R) 46, Joe Donnelly (D) 44, Andy Horning (L) 3
IN-SEN (Rasmussen): Joe Donnelly (D) 45, Richard Mourdock (R) 42
ME-SEN (PPP): Angus King (I) 50, Charlie Summers (R) 36, Cynthia Dill (D) 12
MA-SEN (Kimball Consulting--R): Sen. Scott Brown (R) 49, Elizabeth Warren (D) 47
MA-SEN (PPP): Elizabeth Warren (D) 52, Sen. Scott Brown (R) 46
MI-SEN (PPP for LCV): Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) 53, Pete Hoesktra (R) 40
MT-SEN (Rasmussen): Sen. Jon Tester (D) 49, Dennis Rehberg (R) 48
NE-SEN (We Ask America--R): Deb Fischer (R) 54, Bob Kerrey (D) 41
OH-SEN (Ipsos-Reuters): Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) 50, Josh Mandel (R) 42
PA-SEN (McLaughlin for the Smith campaign): Sen. Bob Casey (D) 46, Tom Smith (R) 46
UT-SEN (Dan Jones and Associates): Sen. Orrin Hatch (R) 63, Scott Howell (D) 26
VA-SEN (Ipsos-Reuters): Tim Kaine (D) 47, George Allen (R) 44
VA-SEN (We Ask America--R): George Allen (R) 50, Tim Kaine (D) 50
WI-SEN (Rasmussen): Tammy Baldwin (D) 48, Tommy Thompson (R) 48
WI-SEN (We Ask America--R): Tammy Baldwin (D) 49, Tommy Thompson (R) 46
IN-GOV (Bellwether/Garin-Hart-Yang for the Howey Report): Mike Pence (R) 47, John Gregg (D) 40, Rupert Boneham (L) 5
IN-GOV (McLaughlin and Associates for the Mourdock campaign): Mike Pence (R) 51, John Gregg (D) 39, Rupert Boneham (L) 3
MT-GOV (Mason Dixon): Rick Hill (R) 49, Steve Bullock (D) 46
MT-GOV (Mellman Group for the DGA): Steve Bullock (D) 47, Rick Hill (R) 40
UT-Gov (Dan Jones and Associates): Gov. Gary Herbert (R) 69, Peter Cooke (D) 24
GA-12 (20/20 Insight for A Better Georgia--D): Rep. John Barrow (D) 50, Lee Anderson (R) 44
HI-01 (Merriman River for Civil Beat): Rep. Colleen Hanabusa (D) 54, Charles Djou (R) 43
HI-02 (Merriman River for Civil Beat): Tulsi Gabbard (D) 73, Kawika Crowley (R) 15
NH-01 (New England College): Rep. Frank Guinta (R) 48, Carol Shea-Porter (D) 41
NH-02 (New England College): Ann McLane Kuster (D) 47, Rep. Charles Bass (R) 41
OK-02 (Oklahoma Poll): Markwayne Mullin (R) 45, Rob Wallace (D) 33, Others 4
SD-AL (Nielson Brothers): Rep. Kristi Noem (R) 50, Matt Varilek (D) 44
UT-01 (Dan Jones and Associates): Rep. Rob Bishop (R) 72, Donna McAleer (D) 15
UT-02 (Dan Jones and Associates): Chris Stewart (R) 44, Jay Seegmiller (D) 28
UT-02 (Mason Dixon): Chris Stewart (R) 55, Jay Seegmiller (D) 28
UT-03 (Dan Jones and Associates): Rep. Jason Chaffetz (R) 68, Simon Sorenson (D) 18
UT-04 (Mason Dixon): Mia Love (R) 52, Rep. Jim Matheson (D) 40
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