Monday, November 19, 2012

Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest: Barber, Peters & McIntyre all win, but West still won't concede

Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest banner Want the scoop on hot races around the country? Get the digest emailed to you each weekday morning. Sign up here. Leading Off:

' Overtime: Since Friday, we've gotten a lot more clarity on the few remaining uncalled House races. Democrats have now officially won three of them (AZ-02, CA-52, and NC-07), though a recount is still possible in North Carolina. But while Democrat Patrick Murphy still leads in FL-18, the picture there is quite a bit murkier... just read on:

' AZ-02: The writing had been on the wall for several days, so it's no surprise that Republican challenger Martha McSally conceded to Dem Rep. Ron Barber on Saturday. At last count, Barber was leading McSally by 2,371 votes, or about 0.8 percent'a much closer tally than we expected, given both Barber's strong performance in this summer's special election and the fact that the new 2nd is slightly bluer than the old 8th, where Barber first won. That result definitely suggests a possible future in politics for McSally, but she's refusing to say whether she'd run again.

' CA-52: It's done! GOP Rep. Brian Bilbray has finally conceded to Democrat Scott Peters, who currently leads by almost two percent, though some additional ballots may still remain to be counted. That closes out the books on California, where Democrats have defeated three incumbent Republicans: Bilbray, Mary Bono Mack in the 36th, and Dan Lungren in the 7th.

' FL-18: As befits a race involving Allen West, things have been fairly crazy in Florida's 18th. On Friday, a judge denied West's request that St. Lucie County recount all early ballots cast there, rather than just the partial recount they'd done previously. But later that same day, St. Lucie decided on its own to engage in a full recount'though it was a classic case of being careful what you wish for, on both sides. Murphy went to court to try to halt the re-recount (unsuccessfully), but then Murphy wound up gaining 242 votes as a result of this full retabulation, which was conducted over the weekend.

That upped Murphy's lead from 1,907 votes to 2,149, but before those numbers were even announced, Murphy once again declared victory, citing a state law which says that if a jurisdiction fails to send official returns to the Secretary of State by Sunday at noon, any "results on file at that time shall be certified." (Interestingly, local media seems to be accepting Murphy's view of how the law operates here.) Either way, though, Murphy is ahead, and outside the 0.5 percent margin that would allow West to seek a recount. It seems the main thing we're waiting for now is whether the state will declare Murphy the winner on Tuesday morning when the SoS's Election Canvassing Commission meets to certify the returns in all federal races'and whether West will make a further legal push to overturn the results if the commission does so.

' NC-07: After clinging to a 420-vote lead for most of the post-election period, Dem Rep. Mike McIntyre wound up finishing 655 votes ahead of Republican David Rouzer as the vote tally became finalized in North Carolina. Rouzer can ask for a recount, since the final margin is under the 1 percent threshold the law allows, and my understanding is that he has until the close of business on Monday to do so. However, in the absence of any reports of widespread voting problems, 655 votes is quite a lot to make up.


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