Tuesday, November 20, 2012

Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest: Our presidential results by cong. district project kicks off

Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest banner Want the scoop on hot races around the country? Get the digest emailed to you each weekday morning. Sign up here. Leading Off:

' Pres-by-CD: Daily Kos Elections is pleased to announce the first two official installments in our effort to compile presidential results for all 435 congressional districts. The main link will take you to our complete chart, which we'll be updating continually until this project is complete. To get things started, two states have already certified their election returns, so that's allowed us to go ahead an crunch the numbers in Georgia and Oklahoma. A word on each (as well as links to our detailed spreadsheets) just below:

' Georgia provided us with a happy surprise, in that the entire state now allocates all early votes and absentee votes by precinct. (Previously, only Gwinnett County did so.) This helps us improve the precision of our numbers greatly: Early votes and absentees comprised more than half the vote in many counties in 2008 and the precinct-by-precinct distribution had to be modeled mathematically. Now, though, we can simply use actual tallies.

The state itself swung about 1.5 points away from the president, but it's interesting to see where the drop-off occurred ... and didn't occur. The Appalachian-flavored 9th district saw the greatest swing from McCain to Romney (about 4 points), but Obama actually approved his standing in three of the state's four black-majority districts (the Macon/Albany-based 2nd, and the suburban Atlanta-based 4th and 13th).

The fourth majority black district, the Atlanta-proper based 5th, saw a slight swing towards Romney. That may be attributable to the sizable swath of urban whites in the district (the swing was more pronounced in DeKalb and Fulton Counties), among whom the president's numbers were not as resilient (as among black voters); indeed, the president's numbers improved in the Clayton County part of the 5th.

' Meanwhile, in Oklahoma, we can see that GOP Rep.-elect Markwayne Mullin had quite the tailwind in OK-02, with Romney outpacing Obama by more than 35 points. The floor is really fell out from this ancestrally Democratic territory, seeing as Obama's performance dropped the most here of any seat in the state. (And it shows you just how impossible a hold this was for Team Blue when Rep. Dan Boren decided to retire.) On the other end, Obama held the line in the OKC-based OK-05, losing by almost exactly the same margin as in 2008.

There are also some unofficial numbers for Minnesota and Virginia already plugged into our full chart. You'll definitely want to bookmark it.


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