Election 2012 is finally almost in the books'I say "almost" because, even with the election almost three weeks old, many states haven't certified their results yet and a handful of states still have a significant number of ballots to count'and it's time to start slicing and dicing the results to see how the electorate has changed since the last go-round.
What's remarkable, though, is how little the electorate has changed despite all the sturm and drang of the last four years. It was a closer election than in 2008, by several percentage points, but it wasn't the sort of election where whole swaths of the population suddenly change their minds and reverse course. Instead, it was a nuts-and-bolts, grind-it-out election: a small but appreciable number of swing voters changed from D to R, the Republicans got their people to turn out, and, maybe most impressively, the Democrats managed to replicate their levels of base turnout from 2008, which back then had seemed like a once-a-generation high-water mark.
By arranging the states from top to bottom in a totem pole according to how they performed, you can see how little that rank order changed from 2008 to 2012. There were a few exceptions'usually states where the presence of a hometown hero on the ticket (Utah) or the absence of one (Alaska) took a thumb on or off the scale'but for the most part, Barack Obama's performance was off a percentage point or two or three in each state. Not entirely uniformly, but quite consistent with an overall drop nationwide of a couple percentage points.
Before the election, there was a lot of consternation about the seeming disparity between nationwide polls that showed a close race and statewide polls that seemed to put the Electoral College comfortably in Obama's hands. Was it because Obama had completely cratered in the implacably conservative red states? Was it because the heavy advertising in the swing states was helping him hold steady there, while he'd lost a lot of ground in the neglected states? Now that we've got the actual results, it turns out that neither of those is the best explanation. Instead, as usual, the simplest explanation was the right one: the states basically behaved like they always behave, relative to the national average and relative to each other, and the national polls just turned out to be more wrong than the state-level polls.
| 1992 | 1996 | 2000 | 2004 | 2008 | 2012 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.C. 90.8% | D.C. 90.1% | D.C. 90.5% | D.C. 90.5% | D.C. 93.4% | D.C. 92.6% |
| Mass. 62.1% | Rhode Is. 69.0% | Rhode Is. 65.6% | Mass. 62.7% | Hawaii 73.0% | Hawaii 71.7% |
| Rhode Is. 61.8% | Mass. 68.6% | Mass. 64.8% | Rhode Is. 60.5% | Vermont 68.9% | Vermont 68.2% |
| Vermont 60.3% | New York 66.0% | New York 63.1% | Vermont 60.3% | Rhode Is. 64.2% | Rhode Is. 64.0% |
| Arkansas 60.0% | Hawaii 64.3% | Hawaii 59.8% | New York 59.3% | New York 63.6% | New York 63.5% |
| New York 59.5% | Vermont 63.2% | Conn. 59.3% | Maryland 56.6% | Mass. 63.2% | Maryland 63.3% |
| Illinois 58.6% | Maine 62.7% | Maryland 58.5% | Conn. 55.3% | Maryland 62.9% | Mass. 61.8% |
| California 58.5% | Conn. 60.4% | New Jersey 58.2% | Illinois 55.2% | Illinois 62.7% | California 61.3% |
| Maryland 58.3% | New Jersey 60.0% | Delaware 56.7% | California 55.0% | Delaware 62.6% | Delaware 59.4% |
| W. Virginia 57.8% | Illinois 59.6% | California 56.2% | Maine 54.6% | California 62.3% | Conn. 59.1% |
| Minnesota 57.7% | Minnesota 59.4% | Illinois 56.2% | Hawaii 54.4% | Conn. 61.3% | Illinois 58.6% |
| Wash. 57.6% | Arkansas 59.4% | Vermont 55.4% | Delaware 53.8% | Maine 58.8% | New Jersey 58.6% |
| Hawaii 56.7% | Maryland 58.6% | Wash. 52.9% | Wash. 53.6% | Wash. 58.8% | Maine 57.8% |
| Oregon 56.6% | Delaware 58.6% | Maine 52.7% | New Jersey 53.4% | Oregon 58.4% | Wash. 57.6% |
| Missouri 56.5% | W. Virginia 58.4% | Michigan 52.6% | Oregon 52.1% | Michigan 58.4% | Oregon 56.2% |
| Maine 56.1% | Michigan 57.3% | Penn. 52.1% | Minnesota 51.8% | New Jersey 57.9% | New Mex. 55.3% |
| Penn. 55.5% | California 57.2% | Minnesota 51.3% | Michigan 51.7% | New Mex. 57.7% | Michigan 54.8% |
| Delaware 55.2% | Wash. 57.2% | PAR 50.3% | Penn. 51.3% | Wisconsin 57.1% | Minnesota 53.9% |
| New Mex. 55.1% | Louisiana 56.6% | Oregon 50.2% | New Hamp. 50.7% | Nevada 56.4% | Nevada 53.4% |
| Michigan 54.6% | Wisconsin 55.9% | Iowa 50.2% | Wisconsin 50.2% | Penn. 55.2% | Wisconsin 53.4% |
| Connecticut 54.1% | Iowa 55.7% | Wisconsin 50.1% | Iowa 49.7% | Minnesota 55.2% | Iowa 53.0% |
| Iowa 53.7% | New Hamp. 55.6% | New Mx. 50.003% | New Mex. 49.6% | New Hamp. 54.9% | New Hamp. 52.8% |
| PAR 53.5% | * Penn. 55.2% | * Florida 49.995% | * Ohio 48.9% | Iowa 54.8% | Colorado 52.8% |
| * Colorado 52.8% | PAR 54.7% | New Hamp. 49.3% | PAR 48.8% | * Colorado 54.6% | * Penn. 52.5% |
| Wisconsin 52.8% | Oregon 54.7% | Missouri 48.3% | Nevada 48.7% | PAR 53.6% | Virginia 52.0 |
| Louisiana 52.7% | New Mex. 54.0% | Ohio 48.2% | Colorado 47.6% | Virginia 53.2% | PAR 51.7% |
| Tennessee 52.6% | Ohio 53.6% | Nevada 48.1% | Florida 47.5% | Ohio 52.3% | Ohio 51.0% |
| Kentucky 51.9% | Missouri 53.5% | Tennessee 48.0% | Missouri 46.4% | Florida 51.4% | Florida 50.4% |
| Nevada 51.8% | Florida 53.2% | Arkansas 47.2% | Virginia 45.9% | Indiana 50.5% | N. Carolina 49.0% |
| Montana 51.7% | Tennessee 51.3% | W. Virginia 46.8% | Arkansas 45.1% | N. Carolina 50.2% | Georgia 46.0% |
| New Jersey 51.4% | Arizona 51.2% | Arizona 46.7% | Arizona 44.7% | Missouri 49.9% | Arizona 45.4% |
| Ohio 51.2% | Nevada 50.9% | Louisiana 46.1% | N. Carolina 43.8% | Montana 48.8% | Missouri 45.2% |
| New Hamp. 50.8% | Kentucky 50.5% | Virginia 45.9% | W. Virginia 43.5% | Georgia 47.4% | Indiana 45.0% |
| Georgia 50.3% | Georgia 49.4% | Colorado 45.5% | Tennessee 42.8% | S. Dakota 45.7% | S. Carolina 44.7% |
| N. Carolina 49.5% | Colorado 49.2% | Georgia 44.0% | Louisiana 42.7% | Arizona 45.7% | Miss. 44.1% |
| Florida 48.8% | Virginia 48.9% | N. Carolina 43.5% | Georgia 41.7% | N. Dakota 45.6% | Montana 43.0% |
| Arizona 48.7% | Montana 48.3% | Alabama 42.4% | S. Carolina 41.4% | S. Carolina 45.5% | Alaska 42.7% |
| Texas 47.8% | S. Dakota 48.1% | Kentucky 42.3% | Miss. 40.1% | Texas 44.1% | Texas 42.0% |
| S. Dakota 47.7% | N. Carolina 47.5% | S. Carolina 41.9% | Kentucky 40.0% | Miss. 43.4% | Louisiana 41.3% |
| Virginia 47.4% | Texas 47.3% | Indiana 42.0% | Indiana 39.6% | W. Virginia 43.3% | S. Dakota 40.8% |
| Kansas 46.5% | Miss. 47.3% | Miss. 41.4% | Montana 39.5% | Nebraska 42.4% | N. Dakota 39.9% |
| Wyoming 46.2% | Indiana 46.9% | Kansas 39.1% | S. Dakota 39.1% | Kansas 42.4% | Tennessee 39.6% |
| Alabama 46.2% | S. Carolina 46.8% | Texas 39.0% | Texas 38.5% | Tennessee 42.4% | Nebraska 38.8% |
| Indiana 46.2% | Alabama 46.3% | Oklahoma 38.9% | Kansas 37.1% | Kentucky 41.8% | Kansas 38.8% |
| S. Carolina 45.4% | N. Dakota 46.1% | S. Dakota 38.4% | Alabama 37.1% | Louisiana 40.5% | Alabama 38.8% |
| Miss. 45.1% | Oklahoma 45.6% | Montana 36.3% | Alaska 36.8% | Arkansas 39.8% | Kentucky 38.5% |
| Oklahoma 44.4% | Wyoming 42.5% | N. Dakota 35.3% | N. Dakota 36.1% | Alabama 39.1% | Arkansas 37.8% |
| Alaska 43.4% | Kansas 39.9% | Nebraska 34.8% | Oklahoma 34.4% | Alaska 38.9% | W. Virginia 36.3% |
| N. Dakota 42.1% | Alaska 39.6% | Alaska 32.1% | Nebraska 33.2% | Idaho 37.0% | Idaho 33.6% |
| Idaho 40.3% | Nebraska 39.4% | Idaho 29.2% | Idaho 30.7% | Utah 35.5% | Oklahoma 33.2% |
| Nebraska 38.7% | Idaho 39.2% | Wyoming 29.0% | Wyoming 29.7% | Oklahoma 34.4% | Wyoming 28.8% |
| Utah 36.2% | Utah 38.0% | Utah 28.3% | Utah 26.7% | Wyoming 33.4% | Utah 25.5% |
"Par" represents the Dems' national percentage that year; as you'll notice, the same states usually stay the same distance from the national average year after year (think of them as boats being lifted or lowered by the national tide). For instance, you'll notice that Ohio is almost always a point or two behind the national average, which is why it's such a reliable swing state that pundits hyperventilate over. Similarly, it's usually close to being the "tipping point" state, in other words, the state that puts the winning candidate over the 270 mark in the Electoral College (a phrase popularized by Nate Silver, marked on this chart by an asterisk in each column). The "tipping point" state, or the state closest to "par," however, aren't necessarily going to be the closest states; in an election that isn't close, there's always a cushion of additional states that the victor wins that add to the victor's margin.
There's much more, including two more charts, over the fold...
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