Wednesday, April 25, 2012

Daily Kos Elections Polling Wrap: Republicans probably no longer find Gallup infallible

Remember a week ago, when Republicans (and Very Serious journos everywhere) were writing the obituary of the Obama presidency, based on the modest lead Mitt Romney had forged in the newly-minted daily tracking poll conducted by the venerable Gallup organization?

Yeah, not so much, now.

What was once a Romney lead of (ZOMG!) five points is now an Obama lead of seven points. But given the wild swings, it is hard to grant credibility to either the pessimistic results from last week or the more optimistic results of present day.

With that cautionary note out of the way, here are the numbers:

(GOP) PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY POLLING (yes ... it lives!):

TEXAS (PPP): Romney 45, Gingrich 35, Paul 14
PRESIDENTIAL GENERAL ELECTION TRIAL HEATS:
NATIONAL (Gallup Tracking): Obama d. Romney (49-42)

NATIONAL (PPP for Daily Kos/SEIU): Obama d. Romney (49-44)

NATIONAL (Rasmussen Tracking): Romney d. Obama (48-44)

TEXAS (PPP): Romney d. Obama (50-43); Paul d. Obama (47-43); Gingrich d. Obama (47-45)

DOWNBALLOT POLLING:
KY-04--R (Wenzel Strategies for Massie): Thomas Massie 32, Alecia Webb-Edgington 22, Gary Moore 17, Walter Schumm 4, Marc Carey 2, Brian Oerther 1, Thomas Wurtz 1

NH-GOV (WMUR/Univ. of New Hampshire): Maggie Hassan (D) 34, Ovide Lamontagne (R) 29; Hassan 29, Kevin Smith (R) 24; Jackie Cilley (D) 31, Lamontagne 30; Cilley 30, Smith 23

NM-SEN (PPP): Martin Heinrich (D) 48, Heather Wilson (R) 43; Hector Balderas (D) 44, Wilson 43

NM-SEN--D (PPP): Martin Heinrich 51, Hector Balderas 27

NY-24 (McLaughlin and Associates for Buerkle): Rep. Ann Marie Buerkle (R) 42, Dan Maffei (D) 38

NC ANTI-MARRIAGE EQUALITY AMENDMENT (PPP): Yes 54, No 40

NC-GOV--D (PPP): Walter Dalton 26, Bob Etheridge 25, Bill Faison 5, Bruce Blackmon 4, Gary Dunn 4, Gardenia Henley 2

VA-SEN (Rasmussen): George Allen (R) 46, Tim Kaine (D) 45

A few thoughts, as always, just past the jump.


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