Why Arizona is competitive

Our newest swing state. As Jed pointed out earlier, there are two new polls showing a neck-and-neck general election contest in Arizona.

The first, by the Merrill/Morrison Institute, shows Romney leading 42-40 amongst registered voters. The second by Behavior Research Centers/Rocky Mountain Poll, has Obama leading 42-40'erasing a six-point deficit in January.

Looking at the crosstabs of the BRC poll, we see why Obama is making the state competitive:

Hispanics
Obama 64
Romney 25

Women
Obama 44
Romney 38

Under 35
Obama 42
Romney 33

That's the Democratic trifecta right there'non-Anglo voters, women and young voters. Romney leads amongst men (43-39), over 55 (45-39), and whites (45-38).

The problem, of course, is that this is a poll of registered voters. Two of those voting groups'non-whites and young voters'are some of the least reliable voters. And among women, the heavily pro-Democratic component of that demo'single women'are less likely to vote than more Republican married women.

In other words, Arizona is competitive if our supporters turn out, but they generally don't. If our voters turn out in 2012, we'll hold the White House easily, take back the House, and maybe hold the line in the Senate. But we've got a lot of work to make that happen.