Daily Kos Elections Polling Wrap: Why trying to parse political polls is sometimes a fool's errand

Today, without question, was a day in the political data world that was both quieter (less than half the polling load) and carried less shock value (read: no NBC/Marist polls) than what readers saw in Thursday's edition of the Wrap.

And that affords us the opportunity to take a second to look at something that yesterday's eye-popping NBC/Marist numbers ginned up. Within milliseconds of those polls hitting the streets, right-wing doubters from hither and yon rose in unison to declare that the partisan configuration of the polling samples is way the heck off, and therefore "honest" polls of the race would have things far, far different.

This is hardly a new meme; indeed, it has been the topic of a Wrap or two during this cycle already. With today being a relatively light day, and with little prospect of light days going forward, however, today may be an excellent day to revisit that topic.

First, though, onto the numbers:

PRESIDENTIAL GENERAL ELECTION TRIAL HEATS:

NATIONAL (CBS/New York Times): Obama d. Romney (49-46 LV; 51-43 RV)

NATIONAL (Gallup Tracking): Obama d. Romney (49-44)

NATIONAL (Rasmussen Tracking): Romney d. Obama (48-45)

COLORADO (SurveyUSA): Obama d. Romney (47-46)

ILLINOIS (Southern Illinois Univ.): Obama d. Romney (47-34)

MICHIGAN (Foster McCollum White/Baydoun): Obama d. Romney (46-44)

NEW JERSEY (Fairleigh Dickinson): Obama d. Romney (52-38)

NORTH CAROLINA (Rasmussen): Obama d. Romney (51-45)

VIRGINIA (Rasmussen): Obama d. Romney (49-48)

WASHINGTON (Elway Poll): Obama d. Romney (53-36)

DOWNBALLOT POLLING:

AZ-09 (GBA Strategies for House Majority PAC et al--D): Kyrsten Sinema (D) 45, Vernon Parker (R) 41

MI-SEN (Foster McCollum White/Baydoun): Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) 47, Pete Hoekstra (R) 42

NV-03 (SurveyUSA): Rep. Joe Heck (R) 53, John Oceguera (D) 40

WA-GOV (Elway Poll): Jay Inslee (D) 44, Rob McKenna (R) 41

A few thoughts, as always, await you just past the jump ...