NBC/WSJ: Americans prefer message focused on fairness over anti-government or inequality argument

For the most part, the new NBC/Wall Street Journal poll reflects most recent polling: it shows President Obama with a six-point lead over Mitt Romney, a big gender gap, an edge for President Obama on most personal characteristics, and continuing concerns about the economy.

Unlike other polls, however, the survey tested several different messages to gauge voter response. Although you can imagine which candidate might be more likely to deliver each message, they were pure message tests. And as you can see, the two strongest messages also happen to be the two messages at the heart of President Obama's campaign: that the way to build the economy is through fairness and balance, investments that expand the middle-class, and giving everybody a fair shot.

NBC/WSJ (PDF). Adults. April 13-17. ±3.1%. The worst-performing message was the one focused entirely on the wealth gap, which probably explains why President Obama isn't using it. (I suspect the reason it performs poorly is that many people see the gap as a symptom, not a cause.)

The remaining three messages are ones advanced by Mitt Romney, and each performs more poorly than fairness argument advanced by President Obama. Of the three, the worst performing argument is the centerpiece of Romney's campaign: shrinking government.

Convention wisdom is that if the campaign is about the economy, Mitt Romney will win. But polls like this'combined with the recent New York Times/CBS survey'suggest the conventional wisdom is wrong.