Initial unemployment claims little changed at 386,000

(The Maddow Blog)

The Department of Labor is reporting that there were 386,000 initial claims for unemployment insurance last week, a drop of 2,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 388,000. Note that the previous week's numbers had been revised upward, so 386,000 is, while technically a decrease, an increase over what was reported a week ago. The four-week moving average, which analysts prefer because it smooths out volatility, was 374,750, an increase of 5,500 from the previous week's revised average of 369,250.

Since the general rule is that 375,000 or fewer unemployment claims is associated with dropping unemployment levels and we've now seen two weeks above that level, there's reason for concern that a trend in the wrong direction is developing. The four-week average, though, is still below 375,000, reminding us that it's early yet.

For all unemployment insurance programs, including the federal government's emergency extension of benefits, the total number of people claiming benefits for the week ending March 31 was 6,765,080, a decrease of 187,807 from the previous week. As Meteor Blades has explained, though, we'll be seeing that total number drop sharply between now and September because of the payroll tax deal reducing the number of weeks of benefits in many states. "But while the numbers claiming benefit will fall, that won't, in and of itself, indicate a healthier job market, just more people with empty pockets."