Daily Kos Elections Polling Wrap: Continued disconnect between the tracking polls and everyone else

Another day, another dollar, another set of polls showing some major-league disconnect from one another. If you only went by the national tracking polls laid down by Gallup and the House of Ras, you might conclude that the presidential election of 2012 was a real honest-to-God coin flip. But when you look at a couple of state polls released today, things still look pretty damned good for Barack Obama, on balance.

First, the numbers on what proved to be a glacially slow Monday in the numbers game:

PRESIDENTIAL GENERAL ELECTION TRIAL HEATS:

NATIONAL (Gallup Tracking): Obama d. Romney (47-44)

NATIONAL (Rasmussen Tracking): Romney d. Obama (47-44)

ARIZONA (Merrill/Morrison Institute): Romney d. Obama (44-42)

NEW HAMPSHIRE (WMUR/Univ. of New Hampshire): Obama d. Romney (51-42)

DOWNBALLOT POLLING:

ARIZONA GENERIC CONGRESSIONAL BALLOT (Merrill/Morrison Institute): Republicans d. Democrats (41-40)

A few thoughts, as always, just past the jump.