Saturday, April 21, 2012

Daily Kos Elections Polling Wrap: When national and state polls don't seem to be on speaking terms

I'd like to thank the House of Rasmussen for giving me the catalyst for today's Wrap analysis. They're not the first to exhibit this odd phenomenon, as of late. But theirs might be one of the most clear examples of it.

You see, this morning, Rasmussen's daily tracker put Mitt Romney ahead of Barack Obama by a single point. Later in the day, however, they dropped a new poll in Ohio showing the president leading Romney in the Buckeye State by four points.

In other words, the Democratic nominee is running better in Ohio, relative to the Republican nominee, than he is nationally. At least, according to Rasmussen. The last time that has happened in Ohio? 1972. So, yeah, there's that.

Here are all the numbers on a (almost ridiculously) light Friday:

PRESIDENTIAL GENERAL ELECTION TRIAL HEATS:

NATIONAL (Gallup Tracking): Romney d. Obama (47-44)

NATIONAL (Rasmussen Tracking): Romney d. Obama (46-45)

OHIO (Rasmussen): Obama d. Romney (46-42)

DOWNBALLOT POLLING:
OH-SEN (Rasmussen): Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) 44, Josh Mandel (R) 41
A quick word about that whole Ohio thing, and what to make of it, after the jump.


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