Thursday, April 19, 2012

Daily Kos Elections Polling Wrap: How demographics can account for disparities in Obama-Romney polls

As was the case on Tuesday, a new day brought another smattering of presidential polls with results that had a spread of a full ten points. Taken as a whole, they give a picture of a race that is reasonably close, and tightening to some extent. Individually, however, there is a poll to fit every partisan and their favored meme.

And, thanks to some eagle eyes in our own Daily Kos community, we can begin to explain, and understand, a possible root cause for that disparity. Simply put: it's race.

More on that after the jump. For now, the numbers:

(GOP) PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY POLLING (Yes ... there still are some!):

NATIONAL (CBS/NY Times): Romney 54, Gingrich 20, Paul 12

NATIONAL (PPP): Romney 54, Gingrich 24, Paul 14

PRESIDENTIAL GENERAL ELECTION TRIAL HEATS:
NATIONAL (CBS/New York Times): Obama tied with Romney (46-46)

NATIONAL (Gallup Tracking): Romney d. Obama (48-44)

NATIONAL (PPP): Obama d. Romney (50-44)

NATIONAL (Rasmussen Tracking): Romney d. Obama (47-43)

NEW YORK (NY1/Marist): Obama d. Romney (57-35)

DOWNBALLOT POLLING:
FL-SEN (PPP): Sen. Bill Nelson (D) 47, Connie Mack IV (R) 37; Nelson 47, Mike McCallister (R) 35; Nelson 48, George LeMieux (R) 34

FL-22--D (Anzalone Liszt for Frankel): Lois Frankel 46, Kristin Jacobs 16

IN-SEN--R (McLaughlin and Associates for Mourdock): Richard Mourdock 42, Sen. Dick Lugar 41

PA-12--D (Susquehanna Research): Jason Altmire 43, Mark Critz 39

UT-GOV--R (Dan Jones and Associates): Gov. Gary Herbert 61, Morgan Philpot 12, David Kirkham 10, Ken Sumsion 5

UT-SEN--D (Dan Jones and Associates): Pete Ashdown 39, Scott Howell 31

UT-SEN--R (Dan Jones and Associates): Orrin Hatch 61, Dan Liljenquist 21, Chris Herrod 4

UT-SEN--R (Mason Dixon): Sen. Orrin Hatch 62, Dan Liljenquist 20, Chris Herrod 6

UT-01--D (Dan Jones and Associates): Donna McAleer 42, Ryan Combe 37

UT-02--D (Dan Jones and Associates): Jay Seegmiller 43, Dean Collinwood 13, Mike Small 7

UT-02--R (Dan Jones and Associates): Chris Stewart 34, Dave Clark 21, Jason Buck 6, Cherilyn Eagar 5, Bob Fuehr 3, Howard Wallack 3

UT-03--D (Dan Jones and Associates): Soren Simonsen 28, Richard Clark 19

UT-04--R (Dan Jones and Associates): Mia Love 38, Carl Wimmer 25, Stephen Sandstrom 18, Jay Cobb 5

A few thoughts, as always, after the jump...


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