Barack Obama '51 percent watch': 50.91

Getting bigger by the day. In Wednesday's edition of this feature, toshiaki listed the margins of victory of presidential elections going back to Nixon:

'0.51% 2000 GWB
0.17% 1960 JFK
0.70% 1968 Nixon
2.06% 1976 Carter
2.46% 2004 GWB
3.52% 2012 Obama
4.48% 1948 Truman
5.56% 1992 Clinton
7.27% 2008 Obama
7.72% 1988 GHWB
8.51% 1996 Clinton
9.74% 1980 Reagan
10.85% 1952 Ike
15.40% 1956 Ike
18.21% 1984 Reagan
22.58% 1964 LBJ
23.15% 1972 Nixon

President Barack Obama won't surpass Truman, but a 4 percent margin of victory is still within reach.

Per Dave Wasserman's running tally. Compared to Wednesday's numbers, Obama gained a tenth of a point Thursday and Mitt Romney lost two tenths: Obama 50.91, Romney 47.36. Obama will be the first president two reach 51 percent of the popular vote in two elections since Dwight D. Eisenhower. Not even Ronald Reagan managed that feat.

There are still a million-ish votes that haven't been reported from New York and New Jersey, and another 545,000 in California. As I write this Thursday night, it doesn't look like Wasserman has tallied all of the 260,000 or so California votes reported Thursday.

Three new states and D.C. have certified their votes:

CT becomes 19th state to certify its election results, although I'm not sure they're public with their final count: https://t.co/...
' @Redistrict via web

Obama won the state 58.09-40.75, pissing off a lot of hedge fund managers in Stamford.

DC becomes 20th to certify tally: @BarackObama 267,070 @MittRomney 21,381. Largest raw vote jump in U.S. (10.5%): https://t.co/...
' @Redistrict via web

D.C. has Republicans?

Maine becomes 20th state to finalize results: @BarackObama 401,306 (+3,263) @MittRomney 292,276 (+1,598). https://t.co/...
' @Redistrict via web

American Crossroads (Karl Rove's outfit) tried to claim that Romney could pull off an electoral vote in Maine (which apportions one EV to each of its two congressional districts). In early October they had Obama winning the state by just 48-44, and losing in the 2nd congressional district 49-44.

Well, Obama won the state by about 15 percent (56.27-40.98), and won the 2nd CD 55-43. Rove is so incompetent, I can't believe people still think he has super powers.

Wisconsin becomes 21st state to certify its results: @BarackObama 1,620,985 @MittRomney 1,410,966. Nearly 7% spread: https://t.co/...
' @Redistrict via web

Wasn't close.

Final WI numbers: @RepPaulRyan won #WI01 reelect 200,423 to 158,414, but by my calc, Romney/Ryan only carried it 195,835 to 179,872
' @Redistrict via web

Damn, a lot of Obama voters didn't bother casting votes downballot. Not that it would've made a difference in the final outcome, but it demonstrates a continuing problem with educating our base on the importance of voting for Dems all the way down the ballot.

And on a final note, want to get pissed off at gerrymandering some more?

U.S. House popular vote: By my count, Democrats have taken a 652,362 vote lead while winning just 201 seats: https://t.co/...
' @Redistrict via web

We need to see more initiatives pass like the ones in Arizona, Florida and California that mandate non-partisan line drawing. Ohio, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Virginia, in particular, have offensive gerrymanders unrepresentative of their state's electorate.

Open thread: Leave me alone

Peggy Noonan: Why can't Obama just be nicer to Boehner and McConnell?

I promise, this is not The Onion, this is Peggy Noonan, and it's for real:

You watch and wonder: Why does it always have to be cliffs with this president? Why is it always a high-stakes battle? Why doesn't he shrewdly re-enact Ronald Reagan, meeting, arguing and negotiating in good faith with Speaker Tip O'Neill, who respected very little of what the president stood for and yet, at the end of the day and with the country in mind, could shake hands and get it done? Why is there never a sense with Mr. Obama that he understands the other guys' real position?

It's not as if Mr. Boehner and the Republicans wouldn't deal. They've been weakened and they know it. A year ago they hoped winning the Senate and the presidency would break the stasis. They won neither. Mr. Obama not only was re-elected, it wasn't that close, it was a clean win. If the president was clear about anything throughout the campaign, it was that he wanted to raise taxes on those he calls the rich. So you might say that a majority of the American people just endorsed that move.

No one would know this better than Mr. Boehner, who has risen to where he is in part because he's good at seeing the lay of the land and admitting what's there.

First, hahahahahahahahaha!

Second, if she seriously wants to know why everything seems like a crisis, maybe should should ask George W. Bush, who left behind an economic crisis and two failed wars, or maybe she should ask Mitch McConnell, who started using the filibuster from day one to undermine the popular will, or maybe she should ask John Boehner who decided that threatening government shutdown and manufacturing a debt limit crisis was a good idea.  And let's not forget: The only reason we're in the middle of yet another policy drama is that Republicans (a) decided to pass tax cuts that expire and (b) insisted during the debt limit fiasco on a massive automatic spending cut to kick in at the end of the year. And it's John Boehner and Mitch McConnell who are refusing to accept the verdict of the electorate on election day'a verdict that even Noonan recognizes is legitimate.

Of course, Peggy Noonan doesn't really want to know why everything always seems like a crisis. She just wants to create a rhetorical framework to make Republican behavior seem reasonable. The problem for her is that reality keeps on getting in the way.

Nancy Pelosi threatens to escalate fiscal cliff fight

Go Nancy!

Pelosi threatens discharge petition to force vote on middle-income tax cut extension.
— @brianbeutler via Janetter for Mac

So what does that mean? There's a bill, passed by the Senate way back in July, to extend just the tax cuts for the middle class. House Speaker Boehner has refused to bring this bill to the floor of the House. So Pelosi is mulling an effort to force leadership to take up that bill, which President Obama is ready to sign.

It's not going to be easy to achieve, because she needs 218 signatures for the petition to work, and that means getting 25 Republicans on board. But even if forcing the bill to the floor isn't likely, this would be another way to shine a bright light on the fact that Republicans are holding the middle-class tax cuts hostage on behalf of the wealthiest Americans. That doesn't look good, particularly in the weeks before Christmas, and will give Democrats another cudgel to beat Republicans with.

It's also possible that a few Republicans will jump ship, not wanting to be Scrooged, and that will just be yet another headache for Boeher. That's always a good thing.

11:46 AM PT: Here's Pelosi announcing the strategy:

President Obama to House Republicans: Don't take middle-class tax cuts hostage

Despite Republican outcry over his fiscal cliff proposal, President Obama is continuing to push them to extend middle-class tax cuts. Today, he's taking his message to Hatfield, Pennsylvania, giving a speech at The Rodon Group Manufacturing Facility where products such as K'NEX and Angry Birds toys are made. The president is expected to urge Republicans to stop taking middle-class tax cuts hostage. We'll cover his speech as it happens, including posting live video when it is available.

9:05 AM PT: President Obama's speech was scheduled for 12:05 PM, but he's actually started a bit early.

9:04 AM PT: Obama talks about how much he enjoys getting out of D.C. and talking to real people in towns and cities across America. Someone shouts out "I love you." Obama: "I love you back."

9:05 AM PT: You can watch online here.

9:07 AM PT: Obama says his agenda is to make the investments we need to grow the middle-class and rebuild our economy, while simultaneously reducing the deficit in a balanced fashion.

9:11 AM PT: Now Obama is putting his focus on middle-class taxes, reminding people that if Congress fails to act, everybody's taxes will go up starting on January 1, 2013. "That's a Scrooge Christmas," Obama says. It would hike taxes by $2,000 on a typical family of four, he says.

9:11 AM PT: Obama says that letting the tax cuts expire would damage the economy, but says there's good news: Congress can prevent the tax hikes by passing legislation that would extend tax cuts on all income below $250,000. That would go to everybody'even people who earn more than $250,000. Everybody would benefit, relative to current law.

9:12 AM PT: In addition to the material benefit, Obama says it would provide security to businesses because it would end uncertainty about tax rates. And, he says, it would set the stage to finish the rest of the fiscal deal that needs to be worked out.

9:12 AM PT: Obama says that his position "shouldn't come as a surprise to anybody." This was a big issue in the campaign, he says. "A clear majority of Americans" took his position, he says.

9:17 AM PT: Obama says now is the time to get the middle-class tax cut extension done. "Let's go ahead and take the fear out for the vast majority of American families." The Senate has already passed the extension. "If we can get just a few House Republicans on board," he says, we'll pass this bill. He takes out a pen'"I'm ready to sign it." He says he carries the pen around in case of an emergency'you know, if House Republicans get off their duff and pass the bill.

9:16 AM PT: Obama says he's counting on Americans to put pressure on Congress to extend the middle-class tax cuts. "I need you to remind members of Congress, Democrats and Republicans, to not get bogged down in partisan bickering. [...] I want you to call, send an email, to post on their Facebook wall." And he mentions the #My2k hashtag on Twitter.

9:20 AM PT: "I'm going to need folks like you, here in Hatfield and in Pennsylvania and across the country, to get this done."

9:18 AM PT: Here's the hostage line: "It's not acceptable to me and I don't think it's acceptable to you for just a handful of Republicans in Congress to hold middle-class tax cuts hostage simply because they don't want tax rates on upper income folks to go up. Alright? That doesn't make sense." Applause.

9:20 AM PT: And the president wraps up his speech by thanking everybody in the audience and saying "God bless America."

9:23 AM PT: That hostage line'that Republicans shouldn't hold the middle-class tax cuts hostage'is obviously the president's central message at this point. It's simple, it's easy to remember, and it's also right. This will be the framing of the debate and given the facts of the situation I don't see how Republicans can change it.

9:27 AM PT: Assuming that Republicans continue to withhold support for extending the middle-class tax cuts, two things seem likely to happen: one, they won't get any credit when the tax cuts finally pass; two, when the tax cuts do pass, they will be in a terrible position to demand any other concessions.

Boehner steps into the abyss

Boehner's refusal to support middle-class tax cuts is the root of the stalemate John Boehner declares a "stalemate" on the fiscal cliff:

Speaker John Boehner declared an impasse Friday negotiations with the White House over avoiding the fiscal cliff.

'There's a stalemate,' Boehner said at a news conference. 'Let's not kid ourselves. I'm not trying to make this more difficult. If you've watched me over the last three weeks I've been very guarded in what I have to say, because I don't want to make it harder for me or the president or members of both parties to find common ground.'

Okay, so if there's a stalemate, let's take a look at the Boehner/Republican position and compare it with the Obama/Democratic position.

President Obama and Democrats are saying that the most urgent fiscal issue facing the country is the expiration of tax cuts on income under $250,000. They say we should extend those tax cuts now, but let Bush tax cuts on income over $250,000 expire at the end the year. They also say that we should continue to look for ways to reduce the deficit through long-term spending reductions, but that we can't ignore the need for short-term measures to boost the economy'things like unemployment benefits and something to replace the payroll tax cut.

John Boehner and Republicans, meanwhile, say they agree that tax cuts on income below $250,000 should continue. However, they also say that tax cuts on income above $250,000 should continue as well. Moreover, they want to see cuts to Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid, although they refuse to be specific about what cuts they'd like to see. They also say they want to raise revenue through tax reform, but again refuse to offer details. And they oppose any short-term efforts to boost the economy.

An outsider might look at those positions and say that there really isn't much of a stalemate over taxes, because both sides have the same position on tax rates for 98 percent of the public. The problem is that at least so far, Boehner and Republicans are saying they will only support tax cuts on income below $250,000 in exchange for continuing the Bush tax cuts for the wealthy and for agreeing to cut Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid. As a result, we do have a stalemate over tax cuts, but it's not because Republicans say they disagree with Democrats'instead, it's because Republicans think they can hold those tax cuts hostage.

By taking the tax cuts hostage, Boehner is raising the political stakes in a big way. He's setting up a scenario where he can only win by forcing the White House to cave or by following through on his threat to hold the tax cuts hostage. But if House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi'who says Boehner's stalemate talk is irresponsible'is able to get about 30 House Republicans sign a discharge petition that would bring an extension of middle-class tax cuts up for a vote, Boehner is going to lose. And even if she falls short, next year she's only going need about 20 Republicans to join her, because Democrats gained seats in the House during this year's election. Meanwhile, President Obama will continue rallying public support for an extension of middle-class tax cuts'and he's not shying away from calling out Republican hostage-takers by name.

Maybe John Boehner believes he can turn hostage-taking into a winning political position. If so, it probably wouldn't be the craziest thing he believes. But it's still plenty crazy. The good news for him and Republicans is that President Obama and Congressional Democrats would be happy to let him step back from the abyss and end the stalement. And the best part of the deal is that the only thing he'd have to do is vote for a tax cut. It's amazing he hasn't figured out just how good a deal he's being offered.

Pay Attention

Follow @DailyKosComics and @MarkFiore while you're in the following mood!

Boehner is very sad that Obama won

Dude needs to get a grip. New York Times:

Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner presented the House speaker, John A. Boehner, a detailed proposal on Thursday to avert the year-end fiscal crisis with $1.6 trillion in tax increases over 10 years, $50 billion in immediate stimulus spending, home mortgage refinancing and a permanent end to Congressional control over statutory borrowing limits.

The proposal, loaded with Democratic priorities and short on detailed spending cuts, met strong Republican resistance. In exchange for locking in the $1.6 trillion in added revenues, President Obama embraced the goal of finding $400 billion in savings from Medicare and other social programs to be worked out next year, with no guarantees.

In all, the administration's fiscal plan would cut $4 trillion from from the deficit over the next decade, the vast majority of it coming from increased revenue, cuts agreed to last year during the debt limit fiasco, and drawdowns in military spending from ending the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. But the plan isn't just about deficit reduction: it also includes immediate stimulus measures to boost the economy and protect the jobless and it seeks to end the debt limit charade by eliminating the archaic rule altogether.

In other words, this is the kind of offer you'd expect from someone who just won reelection after debating these very issues. And, as you might expect, Republicans are already saying no, even though they lost the election'including losing more than a million more votes than Democrats in House races, only retaining their majority thanks to redistricting. As Boehner put it yesterday:

'The Democrats have yet to get serious about real spending cuts,' Mr. Boehner said after the meeting. 'No substantive progress has been made in the talks between the White House and the House over the last two weeks.'

We can speculate until we're blue in the face about what will ultimately happen, but two big things are clear. First, the White House is not negotiating this deal like it's 2011. It's not that they aren't willing to compromise'it's that they aren't going to negotiate against themselves. Second, Republicans don't have the leverage they did in 2011. That's partly a result of the White House negotiating posture, but it's also because the key elements of the deficit reduction plan are already law.

For example, when it comes to revenue, the question isn't whether we're going to raise taxes'it's whether we're going to extend middle-class tax cuts. Under current law, the tax cuts are going away. And when it comes to spending, the sequester is also already on the books. The question isn't how to find more cuts, it's how to soften the impact of the sequester.

Republicans want to frame this as a debate over how to cut spending, but the reality is that under current law, the deficit is going to shrink dramatically'too dramatically. So the real question is how to change current law so we don't cut the deficit too quickly, because cutting the deficit too quickly would tank the economy. And if Republicans refuse to cooperate, they are the ones who will get blamed. And the sooner they realize they lost the election, the better.

John Boehner's latest bone-headed move

Smooth move, Sherlock. The House Republicans have a major woman problem, especially in their own caucus. And this announcement from Speaker Boehner shows that he recognizes that, but it isn't likely to help much.

House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) today announced the appointment of Rep. Candice Miller (R-MI) as chairman of the House Administration Committee for the 113th Congress:

'From ensuring the House runs efficiently and smoothly, to making Congress more open and accessible, Candice has a big job ahead as chairman of the House Administration Committee. In her new post, Candice will provide the leadership needed to keep operating costs down, save taxpayer dollars, and help lawmakers use new technology to better engage with their constituents. And her experience as Michigan Secretary of State will be invaluable given the committee's oversight of campaign finance and election laws. [...]"

Yep, John Boehner just named a woman as housekeeper for the leadership.

This is a comically bogus move by Boehner. He puts Miller in as housekeeper, on a committee on which she's not even a member. He's elevating her over the guy who was expecting the job, Rep. Gregg Harper. It gets more interesting because Harper withdrew from his bid to become Republican conference secretary, presumably because he knew he'd get this chairmanship since the current chair, Dan Lungren, finally lost his seat to Ami Bera.

So Boehner, embarrassed by picking 19 white male committee chairs, reaches outside of the committee roster of the only committee left without a chair to tap a woman, and in doing so screws over a guy who fell on his own sword to prevent what might have been a nasty fight for the number six position in leadership. Perfect.

1:04 PM PT: Bob Johnson, FTW:

"She makes a mean cup of coffee." (3+ / 0-)
"I also bought her a French maid's outfit!"

by Bob Johnson on Fri Nov 30, 2012 at 01:52:01 PM MST

My favorite moment of 2012: 'Please proceed, governor'

In a year full of awesome, nothing was better for me than this exchange during the second debate:

Meet me below the fold as we run through this exchange, blow by exquisite blow.

Also, feel free to discuss your favorite moment of this campaign cycle. Just don't say "Election Night," because that's just too easy.

(Continue reading below the fold.)