Friday, April 20, 2012

Daily Kos Elections Polling Wrap: The women's vote, 2012 elections, and a possible enthusiasm gap

Another day, another serving of conflicting data on the presidential election. Having a double-digit point spread between presidential polls has been the norm, as of late, so today's offerings won't disappoint.

While there are some interesting bits of data downballot, it was a demographic approach to the question of the balance of power in November that merits the most attention today.

That analysis will come a bit later. For now, the numerical buffet awaits us:

(GOP) PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY POLLING (the category that refuses to die!):

NATIONAL (YouGov): Romney 49, Gingrich 20, Paul 13
PRESIDENTIAL GENERAL ELECTION TRIAL HEATS:
NATIONAL (Gallup Tracking): Romney d. Obama (48-43)

NATIONAL (NBC/Wall St. Journal): Obama d. Romney (49-43)

NATIONAL (PPP): Obama d. Romney (49-46); Obama d. Romney w/Gary Johnson (L) (47-42-6); Obama d. Paul (47-44); Obama d. Gingrich (51-42)

NATIONAL (Quinnipiac): Obama d. Romney (46-42)

NATIONAL (Rasmussen): Romney d. Obama (46-45)

NATIONAL (YouGov): Obama d. Romney (49-42)

FLORIDA (Fox News): Obama d. Romney (45-43)

MISSOURI (Rasmussen): Romney d. Obama (48-45)

NEW HAMPSHIRE (Dartmouth College): Romney d. Obama (44-42)

OHIO (Fox News): Obama d. Romney (45-39)

DOWNBALLOT POLLING:
IL-13 (Victoria Research for Gill): David Gill (D) 40, Jerry Clarke (R) 33; Gill 41, Rodney Davis (R) 31

MO-SEN (Rasmussen): Sarah Steelman (R) 49, Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) 42; Todd Akin (R) 48, McCaskill 43; John Brunner (R) 45, McCaskill 45

PA-AG'D (Zata|3 for Kane): Kathleen Kane 42, Patrick Murphy 33

WI-GOV'D (Garin Hart Yang for Barrett): Tom Barrett 41, Kathleen Falk 27, Doug LaFollette 7, Kathleen Vinehout 4

The poll most worth exploring today, however, isn't in that jumble of data above. That poll, and my analysis of it, after the jump.


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