Friday, September 28, 2012

The curious case of the Romney-Ryan schedule

Republican presidential candidate and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney holds a baby from the crowd of supporters gathered outside American Legion Post 176 in Springfield, Virginia September 27, 2012. REUTERS/Brian Snyder Good girl! So we know Mitt Romney is losing Ohio, and we know that they themselves know that they are losing Ohio. We also know that they seem to be pulling their spending from Ohio.

We know that Romney's map path to victory, never very good to begin with, is shrinking by the minute. It seemed stupid to have both Romney and Paul Ryan campaign together in Ohio for three days given their dire situation, but hey, at least they were in a key battleground state.

But their upcoming schedule?

On Thursday, Ryan held back-to-back fundraisers in Knoxville and Memphis, Tenn., two cities in a reliably Republican state.

Tomorrow, Romney is set to hold a fundraiser in Philadelphia. A fundraising invitation published by the Sunlight Foundation says that he and Ryan will then meet up in Chestnut Hill, Mass. for two fundraising events. Two days later, Ryan will host two events in Connecticut -- one in West Hartford and one in Darien.

These come on the heels of a fundraiser that Ryan hosted on Sept. 25 in Houston, Texas and a reception that Romney held Sept. 27 in Washington, D.C.

What do Tennessee, Pennsylvania, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Texas, and DC have to do with each other? The fact that Romney doesn't have a chance in hell of winning any of them The fact that none of these are competitive.

But he is so unloved by the conservative grassroots that he can't feed off small dollar online donors the way Obama does. While 38 percent of Obama's haul has come from donors giving less than $200, only 18 percent of Romney's have. Meanwhile, a much bigger percentage of Romney's "big donors" (those over $200) have maxed out than Obama's (I didn't find updated info after a quick perusal, but back in June, 60 percent of Romney donors were maxed out, compared to just 17 percent of Obama's).

So that means taking precious and severely limited time off campaigning on the ground to hobnob with Romney's country club pals in states with zero electoral relevance. In addition, the extra travel and energy spent on those fundraising efforts means more tired candidates, and tired candidates are more likely to gaffe. Or, in Romney's case, more likely to be his unlikable self.

It's a serious dilemma for Team Red. Romney's $50 million in the bank (along with $15 million in debts) is nearly $40 million less than Obama's $89 million. And unlike Obama, that kitty isn't being constantly refreshed.

On the other hand, money hasn't really moved the needle much this cycle. It doesn't matter how much he spends, he only seems to move backwards. Then again, it's not as if his personal appearances are particularly effective either. Just look at Ohio's numbers after three days of the GOP's un-dynamic duo.

So spend money to lose states, or spend more time campaigning to lose states? Hey, with fundraising, at least he's hanging out with people he really likes. Or at least marks for his next Bain investment round.


No comments:

Post a Comment