Saturday, September 29, 2012

Daily Kos Elections Polling Wrap: So much for a 'Friday light' respite in the polling game

For most of the 2012 campaign cycle, Fridays have been the day where someone shuts off the polling faucet. But after two weeks of humongous polling loads, ranging from 25-60 polls a day, today marks the first Friday where there is nary a difference between Friday and the other four weekdays. My educated guess? We are also only a week or two from the weekends being every bit as crowded as the work week.

Where does the data take us today? By and large, it is another solid day for the Democrats, though there are some definite alarm signs downballot (John Tierney: call your pollster, stat). A series of PPP polls for the National Resources Defense Council have the battlegrounds looking extremely strong for the president, while Obama more or less holds steady in the national polls.

More on the trajectory of the polls after the jump. For now, though, on to the numbers:

PRESIDENTIAL POLLING:

NATIONAL (Gallup Tracking): Obama 50, Romney 44

NATIONAL (Ipsos/Reuters Tracking): Obama 47, Romney 42 (LV); Obama 46, Romney 39 (RV)

NATIONAL (Rasmussen Tracking w/Leaners): Obama 48, Romney 48

NATIONAL (UPI/CVoter Tracking): Obama 48, Romney 46


MAINE (Rasmussen): Obama 52, Romney 40

MICHIGAN (Gravis Marketing--R): Obama 50, Romney 46 (LV); Obama 53, Romney 41 (RV)

MICHIGAN (PPP for the National Resources Defense Council): Obama 51, Romney 42

NEW HAMPSHIRE (American Research Group): Obama 50, Romney 45

NEW MEXICO (PPP for the National Resources Defense Council): Obama 52, Romney 43

NEW MEXICO (Public Opinion Strategies for the Heather Wilson for Senate campaign): Obama 47, Romney 40, Johnson 9

NORTH DAKOTA (DFM Research for the ND Democratic Party): Romney 51, Obama 39

OHIO (PPP for the National Resources Defense Council): Obama 50, Romney 44

PENNSYLVANIA (Muhlenberg College/Allentown Morning Call): Obama 49, Romney 42

PENNSYLVANIA (PPP for the National Resources Defense Council): Obama 52, Romney 40

VIRGINIA (American Research Group): Obama 49, Romney 47

VIRGINIA (PPP for the National Resources Defense Council): Obama 49, Romney 43

DOWNBALLOT POLLING:
MI-SEN (Gravis Marketing--R): Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) 54, Pete Hoekstra (R) 40 (LV); Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) 54, Pete Hoekstra (R) 37 (RV)

MT-SEN (Global Strategy Group for the League of Conservation Voters--D): Sen. Jon Tester (D) 44, Denny Rehberg (R) 42, Dan Cox (L) 7

NM-SEN (GBA Strategies for the Heinrich campaign): Martin Heinrich (D) 52, Heather Wilson (R) 44

NM-SEN (Public Opinion Strategies for the Wilson campaign): Martin Heinrich (D) 43, Heather Wilson (R) 42, Jon Barrie (AIP) 9

ND-SEN (DFM Research for the ND Democratic Party): Heidi Heitkamp (D) 48, Rick Berg (R) 44

PA-SEN (Muhlenberg College/Allentown Morning Call): Sen. Bob Casey (D) 44, Tom Smith (R) 36


NH-GOV (PPP for the PCCC): Maggie Hassan (D) 51, Ovide Lamontagne (R) 44

NC-GOV (National Research for Civitas--R): Pat McCrory (R) 49, Walter Dalton (D) 38, Barbara Howe (L) 3

WA-GOV (Rasmussen): Jay Inslee (D) 46, Rob McKenna (R) 45


IL-17 (GBA Strategies for the Bustos campaign): Rep. Bobby Schilling (R) 47, Cheri Bustos (D) 45

MA-06 (North Star Opinion Research for Young Guns Action Fund--R): Richard Tisei (R) 45, Rep. John Tierney (D) 37

NH-01 (PPP for the PCCC): Carol Shea-Porter (D) 48, Rep. Frank Guinta (R) 47

NH-02 (PPP for the PCCC): Ann McLane Kuster (D) 51, Rep. Charlie Bass (R) 46

WA-06 (SurveyUSA): Derek Kilmer (D) 52, Bill Driscoll (R) 37

A few thoughts, as always, await you just past the jump ...


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