Tuesday, September 11, 2012

Daily Kos Elections Polling Wrap: Obama bounce could be having downstream benefits for Democrats

President Obama's post-DNC electoral "bounce" showed no real signs of abatement on Monday, as the four trackers either held steady or saw Obama's lead grow ever so slightly. Depending on which screen you employed, Barack Obama either got a large bounce or a small one in the latest CNN/ORC poll. On balance, averaging all the relevant polls together, Obama's bounce was roughly similar to what it was yesterday.

But, the bigger news for the Democrats: today made clear the fact that Barack Obama was not the sole beneficiary of a Democratic Convention bounce. For the first time in forever, even the House of Ras had to concede that the generic congressional ballot favored the Democrats. Meanwhile, several individual race polls looked quite good for the blue team.

On to the numbers:

PRESIDENTIAL GENERAL ELECTION TRIAL HEATS:

NATIONAL (CNN/Opinion Research): Obama d. Romney (52-46 LV; 53-45 RV)

NATIONAL (CVOTER International for UPI): Obama d. Romney (49-46)

NATIONAL (Gallup Tracking): Obama d. Romney (49-44)

NATIONAL (IBD/TIPP for Christian Science Monitor): Obama d. Romney (46-44)

NATIONAL (Ipsos/Reuters Tracking): Obama d. Romney (48-43 LV; 45-41 RV)

NATIONAL (Rasmussen Tracking): Obama d. Romney (50-45)

ILLINOIS (We Ask America--R): Obama d. Romney (54-37)

MASSACHUSETTS (Kimball Consulting--R): Obama d. Romney (56-40)

NORTH CAROLINA (SurveyUSA for the Civitas Institute): Romney d. Obama (53-43)

OHIO (Gravis Marketing--R): Obama d. Romney (47-43)

WASHINGTON (SurveyUSA): Obama d. Romney (54-38)

DOWNBALLOT POLLING:
(2014) FL-GOV--D (St. Petersburg Polls and Surveys--R): Charlie Crist 61, Alex Sink 25, Buddy Dyer 7, Nan Rich 4, Rod Smith 3

MA-SEN (Kimball Consulting--R): Sen. Scott Brown (R) 46, Elizabeth Warren (D) 45

MN-06 (Greenberg Quinlan Rosner for the Graves campaign): Rep. Michelle Bachmann (R) 48, Jim Graves (D) 46

NM-01 (Research and Polling for the Albuquerque Journal): Michelle Lujan-Grisham (D) 46, Janice Arnold-Jones (R) 34

NM-02 (Research and Polling for the Albuquerque Journal): Rep. Steve Pearce (R) 56, Evelyn Madrid Ehrhard (D) 30

NM-03 (Research and Polling for the Albuquerque Journal): Rep. Ben Ray Lujan (D) 57, Jefferson Byrd (R) 31

NY-21 (Siena University): Rep. Bill Owens (D) 49, Matt Doheny (R) 36, Donald Hassig (G) 6

OH-SEN (Gravis Marketing--R): Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) 47, Josh Mandel (R) 42

A few thoughts, as always, await you just past the jump...


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