Daily Kos Elections Polling Wrap: Getting a final grip on the Obama bounce, and looking ahead

For all intents and purposes, the post-convention period is now in the books. Even the slow-moving (by design, courtesy of that seven-day window) Gallup poll now has more than two-thirds of its data emanating from days after the end of the convention. Every other pollster's data is wholly after the convention. Ergo, we now have a conclusive picture of the impact of the convention.

But what remains in front of us is arguably the biggest question: for how long can Obama sustain the unmistakeable bump in support he received from the DNC? If he can stretch out that advantage until the debates, and perform respectably in those, he will be in an excellent position for November. If this bump proves ephemeral, however, that could point to underlying structural problems that could make November very uncomfortable for the Democrats.

On to the numbers:

PRESIDENTIAL GENERAL ELECTION TRIAL HEATS:

NATIONAL (Fox News): Obama d. Romney (48-43 LV; 46-42 RV)

NATIONAL (Gallup Tracking): Obama d. Romney (50-43)

NATIONAL (Ipsos-Reuters): Obama d. Romney (48-45 LV; 47-43 RV)

NATIONAL (Rasmussen Tracking): Obama d. Romney (46-45)

NATIONAL (YouGov): Obama d. Romney (49-45)

CALIFORNIA (SurveyUSA): Obama d. Romney (57-35)

MICHIGAN (EPIC-MRA): Obama d. Romney (47-37)

MONTANA (PPP): Romney d. Obama (46-43-7 w/Gary Johnson; 50-45 w/o Johnson)

NEW MEXICO (PPP): Obama d. Romney (53-42)

TEXAS (WPA Opinion Research--R): Romney d. Obama (55-40)

WASHINGTON (PPP for the League of Conservation Voters): Obama d. Romney (53-42)

DOWNBALLOT POLLING:

CA-SEN (SurveyUSA): Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) 55, Elizabeth Emken (R) 37

CA-31 (Internal poll for the Dutton campaign): Bob Dutton (R) 22, Rep. Gary Miller (R) 17

(2014) FL-GOV--D (SEA Polling): Alex Sink 31, Charlie Crist 29

MA-06 (MassINC): Rep. John Tierney (D) 46, Richard Tisei (R) 34, Daniel Fishman (L) 7

MI-SEN (EPIC-MRA): Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) 49, Pete Hoekstra (R) 38

(2014) MN-SEN (PPP): Sen. Al Franken (D) 50, Tim Pawlenty (R) 43; Franken 50, Norm Coleman (R) 43; Franken 52, Michele Bachmann (R) 40

MN-SEN (SurveyUSA): Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D) 55, Kurt Bills (R) 34

MN-SEN (Wenzel Strategies for the Bills campaign): Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D) 52, Kurt Bills (R) 38

MT-AL (PPP): Steve Daines (R) 40, Kim Gillan (D) 37, Dave Kaiser (L) 9

MT-SEN (PPP): Sen. Jon Tester (D) 45, Denny Rehberg (R) 43, Dan Cox (L) 8

NM-SEN (PPP): Martin Heinrich (D) 50, Heather Wilson (R) 41

RI-01 (DCCC IVR--D): Rep. David Cicilline (D) 49, Brendan Doherty (R) 43

WA-GOV (PPP for the League of Conservation Voters): Jay Inslee (D) 48, Rob McKenna (R) 42

WA-GOV (SurveyUSA): Jay Inslee (D) 49, Rob McKenna (R) 44

WA-SEN (SurveyUSA): Sen. Maria Cantwell (D) 54, Michael Baumgartner (R) 38

WI-01 (FM3 for the Zerban Campaign--Informed trial heat): Rep. Paul Ryan (R) 47, Rob Zerban (D) 39, Keith Deschler (L) 4

WI-01 (Public Opinion Strategies for the Ryan campaign): Rep. Paul Ryan (R) 58, Rob Zerban (D) 33

A few thoughts, as always, await you just past the jump...