Tuesday, February 26, 2013

Who votes in an off-year, early-calendar special election primary in a snowstorm?

Snowstorm over Chicago on 2-26-13, date of the IL-02 special election primary. That's the storm currently hitting Chicagoland. The forecast:
Overcast with ice pellets and a chance of snow, then snow and rain in the afternoon. High of 37F with a windchill as low as 19F. Windy. Winds from the ENE at 25 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph. Chance of precipitation 100% .
I remember "ice pellets," and the hell with that shit. In addition to the uncomfortableness of getting hit by them, they would create ice sheets on the ground, sending people and cars careening all over the place. Don't miss it. It's 65 degrees in Berkeley right now.

The reason we're discussing this, however, isn't because I've gotten soft, but because people are supposed to be voting today in this mess. Now this isn't a particularly crazy storm for Chicagoans, who are definitely not soft and can suffer much worse. But regardless, it adds a layer of discomfort to what was already going to be a low-turnout election and dampens it even further.

It's one of the ugliest days of the winter in #IL02. Very low turnout at my polling location. And a fair number of Anthony Beale signs.
' @Taniel via web man it is straight up badump-a-dumping outside right now. the Sears Tower keeps appearing and disappearing, and it's just across the street.
' @aerojad via TweetDeck @markos If you'd like to cover the election personally you can currently see about two blocks in the snow. #YouKnowYouMissIt
' @aerojad via TweetDeck Robin Kelly: "we will drive people to polling places if afraid to drive themselves"in inclement weather #IL02 http://t.co/...
' @paschutz via Twitter for iPhone

Check out Daily Kos Elections' preview of the contest here.

This storm makes the results 100 percent unpredictable. Who has the most motivated supporters? I can't pretend to answer that. Perhaps Anthony Beale, as an Alderman, has enough of a machine in his ward to drag out the very few voters necessary to win this. Perhaps Kelly has managed to build enough of a ground game with the help we provided to get her supporters to the polls. Maybe Debbie Halvorson's NRA buddies will go the extra mile, in the snow, to get their ally to DC. (Though I should note that according to that weather map, it's Halvorson's best area, Kankakee County, that is getting hit the worst.)

All I know is that on a day like this, voting will be the last thing on people's minds, and that makes the results virtually impossible to predict.

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