Polls have opened the special primary election to replace Dem Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr., and the Democratic field has narrowed to about two and a half serious contenders: former Cook County official and state Rep. (and 2010 state treasurer nominee) Robin Kelly, former IL-11 Rep Debbie Halvorson, and Chicago 9th Ward Alderman Anthony Beale. Given the state of play, Kelly is the presumed frontrunner, and the question in many of our minds has shifted from "Will Kelly win?" to "How much will Kelly win by?" The winner will almost certainly cruise to a victory in the general election in this district that Barack Obama 81 percent of the vote in November.
Halvorson's pushing a poll showing her up by four ... at 21 percent (to Kelly's 17 percent). We don't have to look back too far, though, to recall an instance in which Halvorson was stuck in the 20s'she did suffer a 71-29 drubbing at Jackson's hands less than a year ago. We can look to that race to see where Halvorson can expect pockets of strength ... and also why she's unlikely to win today.
Head below the fold for our analysis of this map. 12:08 PM PT: Man, it's ugly out there, folks:
There won't be that many early votes, either. The Tribune has compiled EV statistics across the four jurisdictions (elections in the city are administered separately from those in the Cook suburbs): there are about 7,800 Democratic early votes cast across the jurisdictions. with only about 10 percent of them in Will and Kankakee counties, Halvorson's probably screwed.
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