As Washington's stalemated debate over avoiding the so-called "fiscal cliff" continues to fester, Social Security is once again in the cross-hairs of would-be deficit hawks across the political spectrum. This week, the New York Times profiled Maya MacGuineas, who "has spent years warning about threats to the solvency of Social Security and to the rating of American debt." While conservative Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC) declared, "I will raise the debt ceiling only if we save Medicare and Social Security from insolvency and prevent this country from becoming Greece," centrist Fareed Zakaria and liberal Ruth Marcus took "the American left" to task for the "liberal uproar" over its opposition to President Obama's support for using the "chained CPI" to raise taxes and curb the growth of Social Security benefits.
Unfortunately, there's one small problem with these bipartisan calls to swing the budget axe at the pension system upon which tens of millions American retirees depend. As it turns out, Social Security simply is not a major driver of the U.S. national debt.
Now, it may be true that 1 in 5 Americans will be over age 65 by 2030 and that there will be there will be just over two workers per retiree (compared to five per retiree in 1960). But as Ezra Klein explained in "the single best graph on what's driving our deficits" (above):
What these three charts tell you is simple: It's all about health care. Spending on Social Security is expected to rise, but not particularly quickly. Spending on everything else is actually falling.Which is exactly right.
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