Not again! Assessing possible candidates in a special election to replace John Kerry

One common Democratic response to multiple reports that Sen. John Kerry will be President Barack Obama's choice for Secretary of State is sure to be "No, please, no, not another special election in Massachusetts." But with that, it's time for the Great Mentioner to swing into action. As a Massachusetts native and Senate horserace geek, here are my off-the-cuff assessments of some possible candidates.

First, I'm not 100 percent sure outgoing Sen. Scott Brown is going to run for Senate instead of running for governor. Being governor means actually having to do work; being in the Senate means you can just fart around and tout bi/nonpartisanship and independence, at least for a while. On the other hand, it's much, much easier to get elected governor, and, in particular, to get reelected'you can claim to have no ties to the national GOP and that, as we know Brown likes to do. If he's in the Senate he'll be hunted this spring, in fall 2014, and then every six years—and he'll occasionally have to fight Presidential-year turnout, as he did in 2012. Now that everyone knows he can be beat, people won't be scared to take him on as they were in 2012; he might be able to hold back the tide in midterm elections.

If Brown doesn't run, former Gov. Bill Weld, who just moved back to the state, actually might. That would also be a tough race, but less so than Brown. Weld was an immensely popular governor, but he last held office during the Clinton administration, he moved out of state for several years, and he lost his last race (a 1996 Senate bid against John Kerry himself).

Gov. Deval Patrick has said a million times he's not interested in the Senate. I'm inclined to believe him, though he'd be a strong candidate if he ran. Patrick apparently wants to appoint Vicki Kennedy. She's not categorically refusing as she's done in the past, but she's also far from a sure bet to take an appointment, and if she were appointed as a caretaker, it's not certain she'd run to succeed Kerry.

Beyond that, what does the field look like?