Wednesday, September 5, 2012

It's official, no Romney bump

Remember the expectations that Mitt Romney set:

Challengers get 11-point bump from convention We'll know next week whether Pres. Barack Obama gets his own bump. But Romney's mess of a gathering in Tampa didn't get him anywhere near the 11 points they expected. In fact, they lost ground.
Gallup numbers, pre convention Obama 46, Romney 47, post-convention Obama 47, Romney 46. You're not supposed to go backwards. Luckily for the GOP, at least one other pollster disagrees.
According to a new [CNN] national poll released Tuesday, just before the start of the Democratic convention, the GOP presidential nominee appears to have received a one-point convention bounce, normal for the modern political era.
One point? Well, that's certainly less than the 11 the Romney folks hoped for. And instead of calling it a "bump," perhaps they should refer to it by its real name:

Statistical noise.

And before you start worrying about those national numbers too much, remember that they are irrelevant. Where it matters, Obama is winning handily. But if Romney couldn't move those national numbers with his convention, he didn't move his battleground state numbers.

In fact ...

Obama officials:  Last 2 days of  internals show Obama +9 over Romney in Ohio.  GOP has NEVER won the Presidency without OH. #Current2012
' @DavidShuster via web


No comments:

Post a Comment