Thursday, September 20, 2012

Daily Kos Elections Polling Wrap: A data-heavy Wednesday, on balance, favors the Democrats

We have a new track record!

Wednesday's edition of the Wrap logged more unique polls than any other day on the 2012 electoral calendar thus far. Below you will find (as carpal tunnel sets in for your Wrap curator) 39 different polls on the presidential and downballot races, battles that are now less than 50 days away from their conclusion.

And, looking at the big picture analysis, one has to conclude that the Democrats clearly got the better of the day. For fans of Mitt Romney, the hard reality is that the electoral college map already made it appear that their guy had to draw something akin to an inside straight. And today's polling underscores just how difficult it is going to be for Romney to do so.

Meanwhile, the growing narrative that the Senate is slipping away from the GOP will only be buttressed by today's polling. Several polls, digging even deeper, raise some serious eyebrows and invite speculation that the House, as well, could be in play.

Proper analysis of the big picture awaits you below the fold. For now, however, on to the numbers:

PRESIDENTIAL POLLING:

NATIONAL (AP/GfK): Obama 47, Romney 46 (LV); Obama 50, Romney 40 (RV)

NATIONAL (Gallup Tracking): Obama 47 48, Romney 46 45

NATIONAL (Ipsos/Reuters Tracking): Obama 48, Romney 43 (LV); Obama 49, Romney 38 (RV)

NATIONAL (Pew): Obama 51, Romney 43 (LV); Obama 51, Romney 42 (RV)

NATIONAL (Rasmussen Tracking w/Leaners): Obama 48, Romney 48

NATIONAL (YouGov): Obama 49, Romney 44



CALIFORNIA (Field Poll): Obama 58, Romney 34

COLORADO (CBS/Quinnipiac): Obama 48, Romney 47

FLORIDA (Fox News): Obama 49, Romney 44

GEORGIA (InsiderAdvantage--R): Romney 56, Obama 35

MAINE (Maine Peoples Resource Center): Obama 54, Romney 37

MAINE (PPP): Obama 55, Romney 39

MASSACHUSETTS (MassINC for WMUR): Obama 59, Romney 31

MICHIGAN (CNN/ORC): Obama 52, Romney 44 (LV); Obama 51, Romney 42 (RV)

NEW HAMPSHIRE (Rasmussen): Romney 48, Obama 45

OHIO (Fox News): Obama 49, Romney 42

VIRGINIA (CBS/Quinnipiac): Obama 50, Romney 46

VIRGINIA (Fox News): Obama 50, Romney 43

VIRGINIA (We Ask America--R): Obama 49, Romney 46

WISCONSIN (CBS/Quinnipiac): Obama 51, Romney 46

WISCONSIN (Marquette Law School): Obama 54, Romney 40 (LV); Obama 54, Romney 39 (RV)

DOWNBALLOT POLLING:
CT-SEN (Univ. of Connecticut): Chris Murphy (D) 37, Linda McMahon (R) 33

FL-SEN (Fox News): Sen. Bill Nelson (D) 49, Connie Mack IV (R) 35

ME-SEN (Maine Peoples Resource Center): Angus King (I) 44, Charlie Summers (R) 28, Cynthia Dill (D) 15

ME-SEN (PPP): Angus King (I) 43, Charlie Summers (R) 35, Cynthia Dill (D) 14

MA-SEN (MassINC for WBUR): Elizabeth Warren (D) 47, Sen. Scott Brown (R) 42

OH-SEN (Fox News): Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) 47, Josh Mandel (R) 40

TX-SEN (Frederick Polls for the Sadler campaign): Ted Cruz (R) 49, Paul Sadler (D) 32, John Jay Myers (L) 6

VA-SEN (CBS/Quinnipiac): Tim Kaine (D) 51, George Allen (R) 44

VA-SEN (Fox News): Tim Kaine (D) 47, George Allen (R) 43

VA-SEN (Washington Post): Tim Kaine (D) 51, George Allen (R) 43

WI-SEN (CBS/Quinnipiac): Tammy Baldwin (D) 47, Tommy Thompson (R) 47

WI-SEN (Marquette Law School): Tammy Baldwin (D) 50, Tommy Thompson (R) 41 (LV); Tammy Baldwin (D) 49, Tommy Thompson (R) 41 (RV)



AZ-09 (Anzalone-Liszt for the DCCC): Kyrsten Sinema (D) 48, Vernon Parker (R) 43

IL-12 (Benenson Strategies for HMP/SEIU): Bill Enyart (D) 49, Jason Plummer (R) 41

KY-06 (Mellman Group for the Chandler Campaign): Rep. Ben Chandler (D) 51, Andy Barr (R) 37

NC-09 (Lake Research for the Roberts campaign): Robert Pittenger (R) 38, Jennifer Roberts (D) 37, Curtis Campbell (L) 3

RI-01 (Benenson Strategies for the DCCC): Rep. David Cicilline (D) 46, Brendan Doherty (R) 35, David Vogel (I) 8

TX-23 (Anzalone-Liszt for the Sierra Club): Pete Gallego (D) 43, Rep. Quico Canseco (R) 38

A few thoughts, as always, await you just past the jump...


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