Wednesday, September 5, 2012

Daily Kos Elections Polling Wrap: As DNC raises curtain, lack of a bounce for the GOP is now evident

For the better part of a week, I have cautioned that it was too early to read into the early convention and post-convention polling emanating from the Republican National Convention. Too few data points, a window (in the case of Gallup's daily tracking poll) that still included too many pre-convention respondents, et cetera.

Well, it's the Tuesday after the convention. We can now draw some firm conclusions about the political impact of the RNC on the state of electoral play. And the most evident conclusion is that this was a convention, largely, without a bounce or any discernible momentum for the challenger.

On to the numbers:

PRESIDENTIAL GENERAL ELECTION TRIAL HEATS:

NATIONAL (CNN/Opinion Research): Obama tied with Romney (48-48--LV); Obama d. Romney (52-45--RV)

NATIONAL (Gallup Tracking): Obama d. Romney (47-46)

NATIONAL (Ipsos-Reuters Tracking): Romney d. Obama (46-45--LV); Obama tied with Romney (43-43--RV)

NATIONAL (Rasmussen Tracking): Romney d. Obama (47-45)

FLORIDA (Gravis Marketing--R): Romney d. Obama (48-47)

MICHIGAN (PPP): Obama d. Romney (51-44)

DOWNBALLOT POLLING:
FL-SEN (Gravis Marketing--R): Sen. Bill Nelson (D) 43, Connie Mack IV (R) 42

FL-SEN (PPP): Sen. Bill Nelson (D) 45, Connie Mack IV (R) 38

MI-SEN (PPP): Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) 50, Pete Hoekstra (R) 41

A few thoughts, as always, await you just past the jump...


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