Wednesday, December 12, 2012

Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest: New PPP poll has Kay Hagan leading six potential opponents

Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest banner Want the scoop on hot races around the country? Get the digest emailed to you each weekday morning. Sign up here. Leading Off:

' NC-Sen: Tuesday saw PPP serve up helpings from both Carolinas, North and South, and the early numbers in the Tarheel State look pretty good for Dem Sen. Kay Hagan. Despite a mediocre 44-43 job approval rating, she leads all comers:

' 45-44 vs. retiring Rep. Sue Myrick
' 45-39 vs. Rep. Renee Ellmers
' 48-40 vs. Rep. Patrick McHenry
' 48-39 vs. Rep.-elect George Holding
' 49-39 vs. Rep. Virginia Foxx
' 48-38 vs. state House Speaker Thom Tillis

Hagan will likely be a top target for Republicans, given her status as a freshman holding a seat in still-red North Carolina. But the question is, who's gonna give her a challenge? To that end, PPP also took a look at a kitchen-sink primary:

Virginia Foxx: 17
Sue Myrick: 14
Patrick McHenry: 13
Renee Ellmers: 11
George Holding: 9
Richard Hudson: 6
Mark Meadows: 4
Thom Tillis: 2
Other/undecided: 25

Right now, no one's putting up big numbers, but it would really be a hell of a thing if the absolutely lunatic Foxx (who also happens to be 69 years old) somehow ran for Senate and came away with the GOP nomination. Myrick, at 71, is even older, and I'm not sure why Tom Jensen's including her, since she just retired from the House. McHenry might be the closest thing to an establishment choice'well, except for Tillis, whom Tom says "essentially been running for this seat for the last two years" yet still puts up "humiliating" numbers. Hudson and Meadows, like Holding, are also two new incoming congressmen, but Holding (the guy who launched the failed prosecution of John Edwards) seems to be the most ambitious.

The reality is that despite Republican dominance at most levels of North Carolina politics, this is not an impressive list. (I mean, any list which includes the flukey and flakey Renee Ellmers is simply not going to be impressive.) But remember that Hagan was an unknown state senator when she managed to topple the well-known Elizabeth Dole back in 2008, so the GOP might pull a candidate from obscurity who turns out to be stronger than you'd expect.

(Continue reading below the fold.)

No comments:

Post a Comment