Tuesday, September 25, 2012

Romney campaign kinda admits they're losing Ohio

That's the Ohio picture without the joke pollster Gravis Marketing, which is doing its best to out-Rasmussen Rasmussen. All Pres. Barack Obama has to do at this point is sneeze to get over the 50 percent mark'which he did in the latest Washington Post and Columbus Dispatch polls.

Of course, all of this data is highly unfortunate if you are Rich Beeson, the Romney campaign's politial director.

You saw in the primaries, those of you were around in the primaries, you know we used a specific set of data for our primaries. Each week we would go in, and you know, we'd be 10 or 11 down' whether it was Ohio or Michigan or Wisconsin. We relied on our internal data. We knew where each day at any given point.
What the hell is this joker talking about? The polling composite predicted Ohio would go Romney 34.3, Santorum 32.6, Gingrich 15.6. The final result? Romney 38, Santorum 37, Gingrich 15. So the public polling nailed the margins.

So what's this crap about polls showing Romney down 10 or 11 in either the Ohio or Michigan primaries? Sifting through the polling, I guess there was a single Ohio primary poll showing Romney lagging Santorum by double digits'a Rasmussen poll. So yeah, you pretend those are accurate at your own peril.

Meanwhile, primary polling in Michigan consistently showed a neck-and-neck race, and a final tally was appropriately close. The notion that the public polling was somehow different than the actual results of those races is ludicrous and fails upon the most cursory investigation.

Or put another way, he's a lying sack of shit.

That's the same thing we're doing now. The public polls are what the public polls are. I kinda hope the Obama campaign is basing their campaign on what the public polls say. We don't [...]
If they based their decisions on what the polling shows, Romney staffers would be on suicide watch. Best to pretend otherwise. Except that he can't even muster up the energy to pretend otherwise:
Look, Ohio, there's still 42 days to go. We are by any stretch inside the margin of error in Ohio.
He might've as well thrown in a "the only poll that matters is Election Day" to complete this batch of loser talk. A poll with a 10-point spread between the two candidates an a margin of error of 5 percent is technically "within the margin of error." But that doesn't mean that the lagging candidate isn't losing.

Considering that every real public poll the past week has given Obama significant leads between 4-8 points, it is even less likely that the race is anywhere near tied (aggregate all that data, and the MoE shrinks). And the fact that Romney's own internal polling shows similar numbers (within the MoE but not leading, because he would've said so if they were) doesn't discount the public polling, it confirms it.


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