Daily Kos Elections Polling Wrap: Republicans cling to national polls, must ignore awful state polls

For the second (or third...or fourth) time this cycle, we have entered into a somewhat curious polling dichotomy. Republicans are clinging...with increasing desperation...to national polling that shows Mitt Romney behind Barack Obama, but at least within a fairly modest margin.

Meanwhile, the polls that really count in a presidential election (state polls) show Mitt Romney in an increasingly perilous position as the clock winds down to just six weeks before Election Day. To wit: Mitt Romney now trails by double digits in two of his must-win states. And that is according to Republican pollsters. Meanwhile, the last four polls in North Carolina, a state most pundits concede to the GOP nominee, have either had Mitt Romney tied or trailing.

And the one part of the Obama 2008 coalition that everyone assumed was dust (the lone electoral vote in Nebraska's 2nd CD) is actually tied, with six weeks to go.

If you look solely at the national polls, you could see a path to victory for Mitt Romney. If you look at the entire picture, however, it becomes very, very difficult to see where Mitt Romney makes it to 270 electoral votes.

On to the numbers:

PRESIDENTIAL POLLING:

NATIONAL (Gallup Tracking): Obama 48, Romney 46

NATIONAL (Ipsos/Reuters Tracking): Obama 49, Romney 43 (LV); RV unavailable at press time

NATIONAL (GWU/Battleground for Politico): Obama 50, Romney 47

NATIONAL (Rasmussen Tracking w/leaners): Obama 48, Romney 48

NATIONAL (UPI/CVoter): Obama 49, Romney 46

NATIONAL (Winston Group--R): Obama 48, Romney 46

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COLORADO (PPP): Obama 51, Romney 45

FLORIDA (American Research Group): Obama 50, Romney 45

FLORIDA (Mason Dixon): Obama 48, Romney 47

FLORIDA (PPP): Obama 50, Romney 46

IOWA (American Research Group): Obama 51, Romney 44

MICHIGAN (Rasmussen): Obama 54, Romney 42

MINNESOTA (Mason Dixon): Obama 48, Romney 40, Johnson 5

MONTANA (Mason Dixon): Romney 51, Obama 42, Johnson 2

NEBRASKA (Omaha World-Herald): Romney 51, Obama 40

NEBRASKA 2nd DISTRICT (Omaha World-Herald): Romney 44, Obama 44

NEVADA (American Research Group): Obama 51, Romney 44

NORTH CAROLINA (National Research for Civitas--R): Obama 49, Romney 45

OHIO (Ohio Newspaper Group): Obama 51, Romney 46

PENNSYLVANIA (Mercyhurst University): Obama 48, Romney 40

PENNSYLVANIA (Susquehanna Research--R): Obama 47, Romney 45

WISCONSIN (We Ask America--R): Obama 53, Romney 41, Johnson 1

DOWNBALLOT POLLING:

CA-SEN (Field Poll): Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) 57, Elizabeth Emken (R) 31

MT-SEN (Mason Dixon): Denny Rehberg (R) 48, Sen. Jon Tester (D) 45, Dan Cox (L) 1

NE-SEN (Omaha World-Herald): Deb Fischer (R) 56, Bob Kerrey (D) 40 (LV); Deb Fischer (R) 52, Bob Kerrey (D) 42 (RV)

OH-SEN (Ohio Newspaper Group): Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) 52, Josh Mandel (R) 45

PA-SEN (Mercyhurst University): Sen. Bob Casey (D) 43, Tom Smith (R) 29

PA-SEN (Rasmussen): Sen. Bob Casey (D) 49, Tom Smith (R) 42

WI-SEN (We Ask America--R): Tammy Baldwin (D) 52, Tommy Thompson (R) 40

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NH-GOV (Rasmussen): Ovide Lamontagne (R) 48, Maggie Hassan (D) 44

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AR-01 (Talk Business/Hendrix College): Rep. Rick Crawford (R) 53, Scott Ellington (D) 28, Others 3

AR-02 (Talk Business/Hendrix College): Rep. Tim Griffin (R) 49, Herb Rule (D) 29, Others 7

AR-03 (Talk Business/Hendrix College): Rep. Steve Womack (R) 58, Others 22

AR-04 (Talk Business/Hendrix College): Tom Cotton (R) 51, Gene Jeffress (D) 22, Others 7

FL-09 (The Kitchens Group for the Grayson campaign): Alan Grayson (D) 48, Todd Long (R) 34

FL-26 (Benenson Strategies for House Majority PAC): Joe Garcia (D) 50, Rep. David Rivera (R) 41

MA-03 (Stinson Strategies for the Golnik campaign): Rep. Niki Tsongas (D) 52, Jon Golnik (R) 45

MI-01 (Garin-Hart-Yang for House Majority PAC, et al): Gary McDowell (D) 49, Rep. Dan Benishek (R) 40

MT-AL (Mason Dixon): Steve Daines (R) 46, Kim Gillan (D) 38, Dave Kaiser (L) 2

NE-01 (Omaha World-Herald): Rep. Jeff Fortenberry (R) 69, Korey Reiman (D) 24 (LV); Rep. Jeff Fortenberry (R) 66, Korey Reiman (D) 25 (RV)

NE-02 (Omaha World-Herald): Rep. Lee Terry (R) 52, John Ewing (D) 39 (LV); Rep. Lee Terry (R) 51, John Ewing (D) 38 (RV)

NE-03 (Omaha World-Herald): Rep. Adrian Smith (R) 70, Mark Sullivan (D) 19 (LV); Rep. Adrian Smith (R) 70, Mark Sullivan (D) 18 (RV)

NY-20 (JMC Analytics for the Dieterich campaign): Rep. Paul Tonko (D) 50, Bob Dieterich (R) 31

A few thoughts, as always, await you just past the jump...