Wednesday, September 12, 2012

Daily Kos Elections Polling Wrap: Is there an active effort to minimize the Obama convention bounce?

As the post-DNC bounce for Barack Obama begins to dissipate ever so slightly (at least, in two of the three daily tracking polls), a lot of the members of the political class are beginning to weigh in with their assessment of the depth of said convention bounce.

Unfortunately, it looks like a couple of media outlets are painting slightly curious assessments of their own polling. And the common thread, as it happens, is to draw the common conclusion that the Obama bounce wasn't all that bouncy. In one case, it was a bit of a strange sense of timing. In the other, however, it was a criminal misuse of their own statistics.

On to the numbers:

PRESIDENTIAL GENERAL ELECTION TRIAL HEATS:

NATIONAL (ABC/Washington Post): Obama d. Romney (49-48 LV; 50-44 RV)

NATIONAL (Gallup Tracking): Obama d. Romney (50-44)

NATIONAL (Ipsos-Reuters Tracking): Obama d. Romney (46-43 LV; 45-39 RV)

NATIONAL (PPP for Daily Kos/SEIU): Obama d. Romney (50-44)

NATIONAL (Rasmussen Reports): Obama d. Romney (48-45)

ARIZONA (PPP for the League of Conservation Voters): Romney d. Obama (53-44)

FLORIDA (SurveyUSA): Obama d. Romney (48-44)

MINNESOTA (SurveyUSA): Obama d. Romney (50-40)

VIRGINIA (Gravis Marketing--R): Romney d. Obama (49-44)

DOWNBALLOT POLLING:
AZ-SEN (PPP for the League of Conservation Voters): Jeff Flake (R) 44, Richard Carmona (D) 43

FL-SEN (SurveyUSA): Sen. Bill Nelson (D) 47, Connie Mack IV (R) 36

OH-SEN (PPP): Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) 48, Josh Mandel (R) 40

VA-SEN (Gravis Marketing--R): George Allen (R) 48, Tim Kaine (D) 43

A few thoughts, as always, await you just past the jump...


No comments:

Post a Comment