As I have said all along, convention "bounces" are a bit of a delayed reaction to the conventions themselves. Because polls are often multiday samples (and seven full ones, in Gallup's case), you need to get a few days removed from the election to see the impact, to begin with. What's more, as is the case with many news events, the "bounce" is often dependent on emails, chats, and polite conversation around the lunch table at work. That said, much like you can get a sense of a game at halftime, you can get some inkling about convention bounces even within 24 hours of the end of the convention. At least one night of polling will reflect convention coverage, which means trajectory could be foreshadowed in the Wednesday and Thursday night numbers. And if that is true, Barack Obama might be on his way to something that Mitt Romney could not generate in his own convention: a bounce.
On to the numbers:
PRESIDENTIAL GENERAL ELECTION TRIAL HEATS:
NATIONAL (American Research Group): Romney d. Obama (49-46)DOWNBALLOT POLLING:NATIONAL (Gallup Tracking): Obama d. Romney (48-45)
NATIONAL (Ipsos/Reuters Tracking): Obama d. Romney (46-44 LV; 45-42 RV)
NATIONAL (Rasmussen Tracking): Romney d. Obama (46-45)
NJ-SEN (Rutgers/Eagleton): Sen. Robert Menendez (D) 47, Joe Kyrillos (R) 35A few thoughts, as always, await you just past the jump ...NC-GOV (SurveyUSA for the Civitas Institute): Pat McCrory (R) 55, Walter Dalton (D) 39, Barbara Howe (L) 4
No comments:
Post a Comment