Abbreviated Pundit Round-up: Blips and bounces and bears, oh my!

Above chart is Gallup, Ipsos/Reuters, Rasmussen trackers only, during the convention weeks.

Roger Simon:

I wrote a few days ago that if the Democrats could maintain the enthusiasm they showed on the first day of their convention for all three days, Mitt Romney would be in serious trouble.

They did, and he is.

Frank Newport:

President Barack Obama and the Democratic Party look as if they are getting at least a preliminary bounce from their convention. Today's (Friday, Sept. 7) Gallup Daily tracking update puts Obama's job approval rating at 52%, the highest it has been since May 2011, after the killing of Osama bin Laden. Obama has also moved to a 48% to 45% lead over Mitt Romney among registered voters in the election tracking, up from Obama's 47% to 46% margin over the last nine days.

All three trackers today (Ipsos/Rasmussen/Gallup) show a bounce for Obama. Looks like Clinton moved the needle a bit.
' @fivethirtyeight via TweetDeck
Jonathan Bernstein:

One thing, however, we can say. Gallup is high-profile; most news organizations pay it the second-greatest attention, after, of course, their own in-house operation, if they have one. And even if it turns out down the road that today's numbers were just a fluke, they'll have the effect for now and into the weekend of tending to convince reporters that the Democratic shindig was successful. And if reporters are convinced that it was successful, they're present it that way, with sound bites and clips to match. All of which can actually create the effect they thought they were reporting on.

It's Advantage Romney After Obama Fails To Move The Needle http://t.co/... #GOP2012 #RNC2012 #DNC2012 #obama #romney @FoxNews
' @DickMorrisTweet via web
@SimonMaloy @DickMorrisTweet  can't beat a "pollster" who 1) doesn't know what a bounce is (see Gallup) and B) doesn't know when to look.
' @DemFromCT via TweetDeck
Mark Blumenthal:

The bigger question, of course, is whether this change is just a momentary "bump" in Gallup's numbers, or if it represents a meaningful change in voter preferences that will persist beyond convention week.

Nate Cohn (pre-Obama speech):

But there's another simple and defensible explanation: there are so few undecided and persuadable voters that conventions just can't move the needle like they used to, at least in a race involving a well-known incumbent. Given the stability of the horserace over the summer and the stability of Obama's approval ratings over the couple year, it's not hard to see how that's possible. Even during the partisan Bush years, perceptions of Bush weren't nearly as static as they are now'his approval had been well above fifty percent less than a year earlier, and there were probably many voters who could have been persuaded by events or policy to turn to his side. If polarization is the root of Romney's problem, then perhaps Obama shouldn't be expected to get much of a bounce, either.

In #CTSEN, model has Murphy (D) up ~4. Recent polls are almost tied but the fundamentals ought to favor him.
' @fivethirtyeight via TweetDeck
Lydia DePillis:

Twitter analysis, though, has professional takers of the public temperature somewhat puzzled. "It's something no one has studied," says Daniel Kreiss, an assistant professor of media and politics at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. "It's moving so fast, academics have tried to figure out what to do with it. It's been such an amazing challenge, because the data is so huge."

There are a few big reasons to mix that Twitter stream with a few spoonfuls of salt.

WSJ:

Joel Benenson, chief pollster for the Obama campaign, said Democrats are confident of their chances with a the relatively small share of remaining undecided voters in the presidential election, particularly because of the president's appeal to women and young voters among them.

Asked how the election looks 60 days out: 'Our assumption all the way in was that this going to be a close election.'

The Monkey Cage:

One of the key strategic moves that Bill Clinton made in his convention speech was to draw attention to the GOP's plans to block grant Medicaid, which has been overshadowed by the debate over Medicare reform. As Peggy Noonan writes, Clinton gave Obama. ''one great political gift: He put Medicaid on the table. He put it right there next to the pepper shaker and said Look at that!'  Medicaid is often thought of as a residual welfare program for the poor, but as Clinton pointed out, it is also a vital safety-net for middle-class families.  'Almost two-thirds of Medicaid,' Clinton said in his prepared remarks, is 'spent on nursing home care for seniors and on people with disabilities, including kids from middle class families, with special needs like Downs syndrome or Autism.'

John Dean:

There is absolutely no question that Republicans are trying to suppress non-whites from voting, throughout the Southern states, in an effort that has been accelerating since 2010.  It is not difficult to catalogue this abusive Republican mission, which unfortunately has spread, in a few instances, to states above the Mason-Dixon Line as well.

Nor is there any doubt whatsoever about why Republicans are doing this, since the demographics of the states where it is happening suggest that it is becoming increasingly difficult for white descendants of the Confederacy, with their puppet conservative politicians, and for conservatives in general, to retain control of government.

Harry Enten:

Mitt Romney's swing-state ad spend looks like a loser's strategy

When you look at the arithmetic of the electoral college, the Republican nominee's media buying really narrows his chances

Alec MacGillis:

What was remarkable about the Democratic convention, to me, was the extent to which the party decided to take the opening presented by the Romney-Ryan ticket to present an unusually clear view of the communitarian philosophy that lies at the heart of the modern Democratic id but that has often been obscured in recent decades as the party was trying hard to bring Wall Street to its side. There was no Bob Rubin on stage'the only headline the former Treasury secretary and Citigroup director made was when he fell into a pool at a convention party. Instead, we got repeated, unembarrassed flashes of the let's-get-along, pro-recycling, anti-materialism, look-out-for-the-little-guy, flannel-shirted soul of the party.