Magic tricks, loopholes, government shutdowns and the debt ceiling

President Obama and Speaker of the House John Boehner. As Gary Norton noted earlier this week, President Obama has said about the debt ceiling that:

"There are no magic tricks here, there are no loopholes."

The president may be right, but I'm not sure it was wise to say so now, especially if House Republicans do not raise the debt ceiling. What then? Norton argues that:

[T]hese determinations made clear he will not circumvent the debt limit law by the use of one of several tactics that, while arguably legal, would be viewed by some as gimmicks, or that could develop into a significant Constitutional crisis. Moreover, he understands that the use of any of those options would merely delay the final day of reckoning. The debt limit must be increased and it is Congress' responsibility to do so.

This sounds nice but again, what if the moment comes and the debt ceiling is not lifted? Will the president merely allow an economic catastrophe to unfold just to be able to say he did not use a gimmick or a loophole? I would hope not.

The argument goes that by not providing House Republicans an escape hatch, they will be left no choice but to raise the debt ceiling. Norton presents the argument as follows:

The President did not choose the first two options because, whether or not one thinks he has the legal authority to issue a platinum coin or issue script, the President knew that both internationally and domestically taking either of those actions would be viewed as a gimmick, a magic trick. More importantly, either of those actions would merely be kicking the can down the road. They would be giving the Congress an excuse to not raise the debt limit because the President would have continued to keep the country operating and the Republicans would have been let loose to fight the President in the courts and through impeachment hearings.

This is reasonable and logical. But reason and logic do not always help us predict how the House Republicans will behave. Admittedly the signs have been good'many Republicans are already shying away from the debt ceiling fight. But certainly there won't be enough of them to satisfy the Hastert Rule.  So this solution posits that the Republican House leadership will break the Hastert Rule for the third time in 2 months in order to raise the debt ceiling. This could very well happen. But can we count on it?

I'll discuss this scenario and other "magic tricks" and "loopholes" related to the debt ceiling, a government shutdown, Congressional appropriations, entitlement payments and much more on the other side.