She barely won in 2012. Will Democrats seek her ouster in 2014? Midweek, the campaign wing for the GOP in the U.S House, the National Republican Campaign Committee (NRCC), released their first target list of the 2014 election cycle. And, at the time, I must admit that my sentiments echoed those of my Daily Kos Elections compadre, David Jarman, perfectly:The NRCC put out a list of its seven top targets for 2014 on Wednesday, and I've gotta wonder if they're getting a little lazy, as it's basically a list of the seven Democrats with the reddest congressional districts based on 2012 presidential numbers: Ron Barber, John Barrow, Ann Kirkpatrick, Jim Matheson, Mike McIntyre, Collin Peterson, and Nick Rahall.It does seem lazy. If my math is correct, there are nine Democratic members of the House who represent districts where Barack Obama trailed Mitt Romney. The NRCC has made their initial target list wholly from that group.
However, even at that, there is something else about the NRCC list that seems a little bit odd.
Even if they are, indeed, in nominally red districts, why make a run at veterans John Barrow and Collin Peterson? Barrow and Peterson have run, and won, with frequency in their respective districts.
Furthermore, why would the NRCC elect not to target the two other Democrats who won in pro-Romney districts? Especially when the pair in question happen to be rookies on the Hill (Texas' Pete Gallego and Florida's Patrick Murphy)? One of the most revered pieces of conventional political wisdom in House elections is that the clearest path to defeating an incumbent can be found in the first re-election bid. After that (barring sharp changes in redistricting or scandal), they become much more elusive targets.
The answer, perhaps, might lie in a closer examination of the 2012 presidential election results.
(Continue reading below the fold.)
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