Friday, September 14, 2012

Womens' support for Obama grows

A woman hugs U.S. President Barack Obama during an election campaign rally in Pueblo, Colorado, August 9, 2012. Obama is in Colorado for a two-day campaign trip. REUTERS/Jason Reed You think they've decided who they're going to vote for? For some bizarre reason, most pollsters don't include gender breakdowns in their crosstabs. Even CNN didn't publish those numbers in their latest poll, but I was able to cull the data after the womens' numbers were mentioned on the Ed Show.

The three national polls have trendlines, which I included in parenthesis. The older polls are all from the third week of August:

Fox News showed a huge jump in Pres. Barack Obama's lady support post-conventions, growing the gender gap from +14 to +20 despite gaining a couple of points among men. CNN's gap actually shrunk'not because Obama lost support among women, but because he surged with men. And the more dudes agree with women that Obama's the right choice, the smaller the gap. Meanwhile, PPP's gap went from +4 to +10. Like CNN, PPP sees significantly higher support for Obama among men, so once again, the more they support Obama, the smaller the gap.

Thus, we want a smaller gap, with men and women deciding to meet in a neutral spot somewhere between Mars and Venus ... like, say, earth, and agreeing to jointly support Obama by big margins. But huge gap or not-so-huge gap, fact is that Obama leads Romney among women by double digits in every single one of these polls. Meanwhile, Mitt Romney can't muster double-digit leads with men in these critical battlegrounds.

And given that women vote in significantly higher numbers than men, that's the ballgame.


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